The 1998 United States Senate Elections

The Senate

The United States Senate is a unique institution in government. It is clearly undemocratic, in the sense that all states are equally represented there. The less than 500,000 voters in North Dakota have two United States Senators, the same as the 22 million eligible voters in California. Inequalities like that are designed to protect minority interests. It's not a bad idea to have a few Senators who come from constituencies small enough that they can only get elected by meeting the voters face to face. Otherwise, the television stations and newspapers will control all the public officials.

Another undemocratic institution, the Electoral College, was designed to keep the election of the President in the hands of the states. Congress has tried to do its best to undermine this fundamental concept through the Federal Election Campaign Act, which gives the federal government control over campaign financing. This unconstitutional legislation is a major threat to democracy in the United States. Your contributions are limited by law, but there's no limit to how much billionaires can spend on their own campaigns. That's why more and more elected officials are millionaires who inherited their wealth and political connections, like Governor Whitman in New Jersey.


In 1997, Governor Whitman, who is running for the Senate, received $1.86 million in state matching campaign funds to run unopposed in the Republican primary. At the same time, Frank G. Marmo, a ballot qualified candidate for Governor, was not allowed into the officially sanctioned debate required of candidates who receive public campaign funds, because he hadn't raised and spent $250,000. This is public campaign financing today. Public subsidies for millionaires, and state sanctioned exclusion for candidates with no money. Sorry for this digression. Back to the Senate.

Anyway, the creation of the United States Senate was the historic compromise necessary to get the United States Constitution ratified. It is the one institution that stands up for the rights of the little guy and minorities, now that the courts have become apologists for the police state.

From a psephological standpoint, the Senate makes every election unique. The three different classes of senators, combined with the six year terms, means that elections in the United States replicate themselves only every 12 years. This means that 1986 was the last election to have the same configuration as the 1998 election. In 1986 Texas had 27 congressional representatives, not 30; and Florida had 19, not 22. So, while Senate districts don't change, internal migrations and reapportionment of the House of Representative districts change the election framework enough that comparisons after a dozen years are basically useless. So, the Senate makes every election unique, although they can be understood by comparing them to each other (over a short time frame) and to themselves.


The Votes - 60% Win with more than 60%

In 1998, Democrats elected 18 Senators and Republicans elected 16. The total number of votes cast for Senate was 53,711,392. Although this was a 6.6% absolute decline from the 57,548,996 votes cast for Senate in 1994, the comparison is not germane seeing as half the states that had Senate races in 1998 did not have Senate races in 1994, and those states that did not have Senate races in 1998 did have them four years before.

In a reversal of the outcome in the Governors races, the Democrats were given a small majority in the Senate races. The Democratic vote total was 26,896,863 compared to the Republican total of 25,679,880 with 1,134,649 votes for the independent candidates. So, the Democrats, with 50.076% of the vote, just managed to squeak to a majority.

But here again, the close margin nationally disguises huge variations locally. Of the 16 winning Republican Senators, 11 won with more than 60% of the vote; and of the 18 winning Democratic Senators 10 won with more than 60% of the vote. So, over 60% of the Senate races were won with over 60% of the vote. That's the message from the United States Senate in 1998. Only 40% of the Senate seats were really contested elections.

So, with so many safe seats, it's not surprising that the party alignment didn't change much. The Democrats gained one seat. The Republicans gained the Senate seats in Ohio and Illinois, and the Democrats gained Senate seats in Indiana, North Carolina and New York. The interesting thing is that 60% of the changes in the Senate came from the mid-western tier of Ohio, Indiana and Illinois. The Rust Belt is trying to tell the nation something about foreign policy.

There were two other interesting Senate races worth noting: Kentucky and Nevada. In Kentucky, which borders the three mid-western states just mentioned, and almost touches North Carolina, Republican Jim Bunning just barely managed to retain his Senate seat with 49.74% of the vote, less than a majority. This close election was almost exactly mirrored geographically in Nevada, where Democrat Harry Reid retained his seat in the closest election in the nation. Reid defeated Ensign, his Republican opponent by a 401 vote margin, 208,621 to 208,222. Reid won with a smaller percentage, 48.77% than the Democrat Scotty Baesler in Kentucky received when he lost.


The Governor-Senator Comparison

While it is difficult to understand the Senate races by comparing them with previous Senate races, their meaning can be gleaned by comparing them to the Governors races in the same state in the same year. In 1998, 26 states had both Senate and Governor races. Nine states, or more than one third, elected a Governor and Senator from different parties. States that elected Democratic Governors and Republican Senators were Alaska, Georgia, Iowa, and New Hampshiire. Look at the geographic distribution of these four states. All sections of the country are represented. A Pacific coast state, two Atlantic coast states, one in the north and one in the south, and Iowa, in the midwest, a clear indication that the Iowa caucuses, the first event in the presidential selection process, is wide open. The people are looking for new candidates for President in 2000.

The states that elected Republican Governors and Democratic Senators are: Connecticut, Florida, Nevada, New York and South Dakota. Here again, look at the geographic distribution, three Atlantic coastal states, one in New England, one Middle Atlantic, and the third in the South, one in the Mid-west, and one in the far west. All sections of the country are represented. This shows that the potential for nation-wide political change is present. It shows the absence of regional patterns in voting behavior. We're really one country, and the problems look the same everywhere.

But the conclusive proof that the voters are really sharply and closely divided comes from comparing the votes in the 26 states that had both Governors and Senate races in 1998. The same voters that gave the Republicans a 21,867,266 to 20,401,741 edge in the Governors races, gave the Democrats a 21,580,518 to 21,297,105 vote edge in the Senate races. This means not only that the two parties are evenly matched, in spite of the landslide victories both gain in different states, but that voters see the need to use politics to put a balance of powers between the different branches and levels of government.

In 1998, the United States had a Democratic President and a Republican congress; but in the elections they gave the overwhelming number of Governorships to the Republicans, while voting for the Democrats on the national level. On the state level, there are similar splits between the legislature and the statewide elected official

Ab. Senate 98 Shelby (R) Suddith (D) Write-in Senate 98
817,973 474,568 864 1,293,405
63.2418% 36.6914% 0.0668% 864
Alska Senate 98 Murkowski (R) Sonneman (D) Kohlhass (Lib) Gottlieb (Grn) Write-in votes Senate 98
165,227 43,743 5,046 7,126 665 0 221,807 (7,161)
74.4913% 19.7212% 2.2750% 3.2127% 0.2998% 0.0000% Ind. total 12,837
Az. Sen. 98 McCain (R) Ranger (D) Zajadc (Lbt) Park (Ref) Reilly (w-i) Voting 1988 Senate 98
696,577 275,224 23,004 18,288 187 0 0 0 0 1,037,550 1,013,280 (24,270)
68.7448% 27.1617% 2.2703% 1.8048% 0.0185% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% Ind. total 41,479
Ark. Sen. 1998 Boozman, MD (R) Lincoln (D) Heffley (Ref) Senate 98
295,870 385,878 18,896 700,644
42.2283% 55.0748% 2.6969% Ind. total 18,896
Ca. Senate 98 Matt Fong (R) Boxer (D) T. Brown (Lib) Perrin (AI) Beltran (P&F) Erich (Ref) Rees (NL) Senate 1998
3,575,078 4,410,056 93,926 54,699 48,685 82,918 46,543 8,311,905
43.0115% 53.0571% 1.1300% 0.6581% 0.5857% 0.9976% 0.5600% 0.0000% 0.0000% Ind. Total 326,771
Co. Senate 98 Campbell (R) Lamm (D) Segal (L) Heckman (CoPeo) Peckman (NL) Swanson (Const) Swing (Pac) Senate 1998
829,370 464,754 14,024 3,230 4,101 9,775 1,981 1,063,272 1,327,235 263963
62.4886% 35.0167% 1.0566% 0.2434% 0.3090% 0.7365% 0.1493% Ind. total 33,111
Ct. Senate 98 Gary Franks (R) Dodd (D) Kozak (CC) Moore (L) Grasso (TL) Senate 98
312,177 628,306 12,261 5,196 6,517 0 1,022,453 964,457 (57,996)
32.3682% 65.1461% 1.2713% 0.5387% 0.6757% 0.0000% Ind. total 23,974
Fla. Sen. 98 Crist (R) Graham (D) Senator 98
1,464,265 2,436,798 0 3,901,063
37.5350% 62.4650% 0.0000% 1.46936793852786E-39
Ga. Sen. 98 Coverdell (R) Coles (D) Loftman (Lib) Senate 98 Senate 94 (18,877)
918,540 791,904 43,467 1,753,911 199,029
52.3710% 45.1508% 2.4783% 43467 3,387
Ha. Senate 98 Young (R) Inouye (D) Jeff Mallan (L) Voting 1998 Senate 1998
70,964 315,252 11,908 0 0 412,520 398,124 (14,396)
17.8246% 79.1844% 2.9910% 0.0000% 0.0000% Ind. total 11,908
Id. Senate 98 Crapo (R) Bill Mauk (D) Mansfield (NL) Voting 1998 Senate 98
262,966 107,375 7,833 386,720 378,174 (8,546)
69.5357% 28.3930% 2.0713% Ind. total 7,833
Ill. Sen. 98 Fitzgerald (R) Mosley-Braun (D) Torgersen (L) Stalker (W-I) Senate 1998
1,709,041 1,610,496 74,704 280 3,394,521 (146,858)
50.3470% 47.4440% 2.2007% 0.0082% 74,984
Ind. Senate 98 Paul Helmke (R) Evan Bayh (D) Sink-Burris (L) Voting 1988 Senate 98
552,732 1,012,244 23,641 1,588,617
34.7933% 63.7186% 1.4881% Ind. total 23,641
Iowa Senate 98 Grassley (R) Osterberg (D) Marcus (NL) Trowe (Soc.) Scattering Voting 1988 Senate 1998
648,480 289,049 7,561 2,542 275 0 0 0 0 0 947,907
68.4118% 30.4934% 0.7977% 0.2682% 0.0290% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 0.0000% 1.46936793852786E-39 Ind. total 10,378
Kan. Sen. 98 Brownback (R) Feleciano (D) Oyler (Lib) Bauman (Ref) Senate 98
474,639 229,718 11,545 11,334 727,236
65.2662% 31.5878% 1.5875% 1.5585% Ind. total 22,879
Ken. Senate 98 Jim Bunning (R) Baesler (D) Arbegust (F) Senate 98
569,817 563,051 12,546 1,145,414 -1145414
49.7477% 49.1570% 1.0953% Ind. total 12,546
La. Senate 98 Donelon (R) Breaux (D) Brown (I) Melton (D) Ward (R) Diket (O) Rosenthal (O) Voting 1988 Senate 1998
306,616 620,502 12,230 9,893 7,964 3,227 2,397 962,829
31.8453% 64.4457% 1.2702% 1.0275% 0.8271% 0.3352% 0.2490% Ind. total 35,711
Md. Senate 98 Pierpont (R) Mikulski (D) Senate 98 8587
444,637 1,062,810 1,507,447
29.4960% 70.5040% 0.0000% Ind. total 1.46936793852786E-39
Mo. Senate 98 Kit Bond (R) Jay Nixon (D) Millay (L) Frazier (Tax) Newport (Ref) Scattered Senate 94 Voting 1988 Senator 1998 35116
830,625 690,208 31,876 15,368 8,780 1,576,857
52.6760% 43.7711% 2.0215% 0.9746% 0.5568% 163,655 Ind. total 56,024
Nv Senate 98 Ensign (R) Harry Reid (D) Cloud (L) Williams (NL) None of These Voting 1998 Senate 98 14623
208,220 208,621 8,129 2,781 8,113 440,042 435,864 (12,291)
48.6779% 48.7716% 1.9004% 0.6501% 1.8967% Ind. total 10,910
NH Senator 98 Gregg (R) Condodemetraky(D) Kendel (L) Scatter Senate 98
213,477 88,883 4,733 260 330,555 307,353
69.4566% 28.9189% 1.5399% 0.0846% Ind. total 4,993
NY Senator 98 D'Amato (R-C-rtl) Schumer (D-L-I) Kurtz (Marij) Kovel (Green) Berbeo (SWP) McMillen (LBT) Senate 94
2,058,988 2,551,065 34,281 14,735 3,513 8,223 4,670,805 (315,127)
44.0821% 54.6172% 0.7339% 0.3155% 0.0752% 0.1761% Ind. total 60,752 182
NC Senate 1998 Faircloth (R) Edwards (D) Howe (L) Registered 88 Senate 1998
945,943 1,029,237 36,963 2,012,143
47.0117% 51.1513% 1.8370% Ind. total 36,963
ND Senate 98 Nalewaja (R) Dorgan (D) McLain (Ref) Voting 1998 Senate 98
75,013 134,747 3,598 217,584 213,358 (4,226)
35.1583% 63.1554% 1.6864% Ind. total 3,598
Ohio Senate 98 Voinovich (R) Boyle (D) Hoyt (w-i) Mitchel (I) Senate 1998 (97,149)
1,884,129 1,455,555 51 0 3,339,735 (123,748)
56.4155% 43.5829% 0.0015% 0.0000% Ind. total 51
Ok. Senate 98 Don Nickels (R) Carroll (D) Mike Morris (I) Yandell (I) Votin 1990 Senate 1998
570,682 268,898 15,516 4,617 0 859,713
66.3805% 31.2776% 1.8048% 0.5370% Ind. total 20,133
Or. Senate 98 John Lim (R) Ron Wyden (D) Brewster (L) Campbell (NL) Moskowitz (P) Misc. Voting 1998 Senate 98
377,739 682,425 18,221 8,372 22,024 1,413 1,160,400 1,110,194 (50,206)
34.0246% 61.4690% 1.6412% 0.7541% 1.9838% 0.1273% Ind. total 50,030
Pa. Sen. 98 Specter (R) Bill Lloyd (D) Dean Snyder (C) Innantuono (L) Write-in Senate 98
1,814,180 1,028,839 68,377 46,103 273 0 2,957,772
61.3360% 34.7843% 2.3118% 1.5587% 0.0092% 0.0000% Ind. total 114,753
SC Senate 98 Billings (R) Hollings (D) Quillan (L) Write-in Senate 98 18664
488,132 562,791 16,987 457 1,098,484 1,068,367 (30,117)
45.6895% 52.6777% 1.5900% 0.0428% Ind. total 17,444
SD Senate 98 Ron Schmidt (R) Tom Daschle (D) Byron Dale (L) Senator 1998
95,431 162,884 3,796 266,355 262,111 (4,244)
36.4086% 62.1431% 1.4482% Ind. total 3,796
Utah Senate 98 Bennett (R) Leckman (D) Van Horn (IA) Workman (w-i) 1998 Vote Senate 1994
316,652 163,172 15,073 12 0 0 506,553 494,909 (11,644)
63.9819% 32.9701% 3.0456% 0.0024% 0.0000% 0.0000% Ind. total 36,107 23,001
Vt. Senate 98 Tuttle (R) Leahy (D) Douglas (L) Jerry Levy (LU) Melamede (VG) Nelson (I) Write-in Total vote Senate 98
48,051 154,567 4,199 1,238 2,459 2,893 629 220,991 214,036 (6,955)
22.4500% 72.2154% 1.9618% 0.5784% 1.1489% 1.3516% 0.2939% Ind. total 11,418
Wa. Senate 98 Linda Smith (R) Patty Murray(D) Senate 1998
785,377 1,103,184 1,888,561 (50,860)
41.5860% 58.4140% 0
Wi. Senate 1998 Neumann (R) Feingold (D) Ender (Lib) Raymond (Tax) Eugene Hem (I) Scattering Smith (W-I) Voting 1988 Senate 98 196,010
852,272 890,059 5,591 7,942 4,266 706 0 802 1,761,638
48.3795% 50.5245% 0.3174% 0.4508% 0.2422% 0.0401% 0.0000% 0.0455% Ind. total 19,307
Totals 25,679,880 26,896,863 640,847 214,473 117,822 109,155 51,550 802 53,711,392
47.8109% 50.0766% 1,134,649

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf