The Second Term Curse of the American Presidency
Presidents are
limited to two terms of four years each. Circumstances seem to dictate that a
single six-year term is all anyone can handle. Most modern two-term presidents
hit disaster in their second term, at about year six.
Woodrow Wilson, who was inaugurated on March 4, 1913.
After winning World War I, he submitted the doomed Treaty for a League of
Nations on July 10, 1919; six years, four months, and six days into his term of
office. He spent the end of his presidency vainly fighting for Senate ratification
of the treaty and suffering a stroke.
Warren Harding was
inaugurated on March 4, 1921. Harding died in office and was succeeded by
Calvin Coolidge, his vice president. The Supreme Court decision invalidating
the scandalous Teapot Dome leases came on January 1, 1927; five years, ten
months, and thirteen days into the joint term. The Teapot Dome scandal defined Harding's
and Coolidge'sdge’s presidencies.
Franklin Roosevelt’s
disaster came six years and one day shy of six months when the Second World War
broke out in Europe. Roosevelt was the
first president to be sworn in on January 20 instead of March 4.
Five
years, five months, and five days after Roosevelt took the oath for his fourth
term, before dying two months and twenty-two days later, Harry Truman on June
25, 1950, faced the North Korean invasion of the South. The Korean War was on.
Ike faced the Soviet launch of Sputnik and the Little
Rock High School integration crisis four years, nine months, and eight months,
respectively, after taking office.
Kennedy and Johnson launched the Vietnam War with LBJ
committing to doubling the draft calls and sending American combat forces four
years, six months, and five days after JFK’s stirring inaugural, vowing to pay
any price and bear any burden in defense of liberty.
Nixon resigned five
years, six months, and fourteen days after moving into the White House.
The Iran-Contra scandal that almost sank the Reagan
Administration came to light on November 25, 1986, five years, ten months, and
five days from Inauguration Day.
Bill Clinton’s
affair with Monica Lewinsky became public on January 17, 1998, three days short
of five years since he was inaugurated. The scandal and impeachment consumed
the entire fifth year of Clinton’s presidency, until he was acquitted almost
exactly one year later on February 12, 1999, six years and 23 days from taking
office.
If you don’t count
the 9/11 attack that came 7 months into George W. Bush’s first term, the
housing bubble and sub-prime mortgage crisis, triggering the Great Recession,
the worst economic downturn in seven decades, began in December 2007, six years
and 11 months since moving into the White House.
Barack
Obama’s big second term event was a success, not a disaster. On July 14, 2015,
six years, five months and 25 days after he was inaugurated, the Joint
Comprehensive Plan of Action between the five permanent members of the United
Nations Security Council plus Germany that limited Iran’s nuclear program was
agreed.
The
Republicans and Israel objected to the plan, primarily because addressing
ancillary issues like Iran’s missiles and its aid for local militias like
Hezbollah was omitted. Trump unilaterally pulled out of the agreement when he
was elected, moved the American embassy to Jerusalem and recognized Israeli
sovereignty over Syria’s Golan Heights. Not only did Trump not secure any
Israeli concessions from Israel for the Palestinians in exchange for his
support, he cut financial support for the Palestinians. Maximum economic
sanctions on the Palestinians and Iran was intended to
force them to the negotiating table and secure a better deal for the US and
Israel.
These actions led Hamas to
correctly conclude that Israel had no intention of negotiating a peace deal and
was intent on either keeping the Arabs in a permanently subjugated status or
forcing them out of the West Bank and Gaza entirely. That’s when planning for
the October 7, 2023 attack on Israel began.
So,
on February 25, 2026, five years, one month and five days into Trump’s two
terms, the US and Israel mounted a pre-emptive attack on Iran, killing its leadership.
Trump, who famously said, “What’s in it for them?” in reference to dead
American soldiers in France, who refused to be seen with amputees because it
makes him look bad on television, who disparaged Senator John McCain’s
imprisonment, can’t understand the refusal of the Iranians to capitulate or
even negotiate. That’s because Iran, successor to the Persian Empire and
culture, has been around since 550 B.C., that’s 2,576 years. The rulers of Iran
view the United States, only one-tenth its age, as upstart pipsqueaks.
Trump can’t understand
anyone having a different value system than his. One logical conclusion from
this pattern is that American presidents perform relatively well during their
first terms when their need and desire for re-election keeps their behavior consonant
with the desires of the people. Once freed of political constraints, disaster
is sure to follow.
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