The 2004 New Hampshire Primary – A landslide for first born white males who attended elite private prep schools, attended Yale University, reject public financing and have graduate degrees.  Bush himself is the major issue receiving less than 80% in the Republican Primary.

The 2004 New Hampshire Primary election is finally over and it was a romp for John Kerry, Howard Dean and George Bush.  Combined, they received over 70% of the vote.  John Kerry, the winner, went to St. Paul’s School and then on to Yale.  His second wife is the heiress to the Heinz food fortune.  Howard Dean, the runner up, went to St. George’s School and on to Yale.  George Bush went to Andover and on to Yale.  When Joseph Lieberman’s votes are included, more than three-quarters of the votes cast in the New Hampshire primary went to graduates of Yale University.

  John Kerry became a lawyer after serving in the Navy.  Howard Dean became a doctor, and George Bush has a Masters of Business Administration from Harvard.  These men are just plain folks.  And all the major candidates still in the race are the oldest boys in their families.

  Furthermore, Kerry, Dean and Bush are all running in the primaries without public matching funds so they are not restricted in how much they can spend.  This is especially significant in Bush’s case, because he has not only raised the most money, but has no opposition.  So, what is the war chest for?  The meaning of this is that "campaign finance reform" is dead.

The fact that the three leading candidates are so similar in background just underscores that the political process is not really open or about finding the best people to lead the country.  The myth that anyone can grow up to be president is just that, a myth.  Politics is a closed club for rich kids.  And Clinton went to Yale Law School and Bush, Sr. went to Yale.  So, the issue in 2004 is less between the Republicans and Democrats and more a question of whether the country is condemned to be run by Yale University graduates forever.

This underscores the fact that Bush himself is the issue. While Joe Lebensraum has been called "Bush lite" because his positions are so similar to Bush's; on a personal pedigree basis, Kerry, and Dean are closer to Bush than Joe Lieberman, Wesley Clark and John Edwards.

The final 2004 New Hampshire primary vote totals are:

John Kerry         87,386    (30.2%)

Howard Dean     59,649    (20.6%)

George Bush       54.019    (18.7%)

Wesley Clark       28,781    (9.9%)

John Edwards       27,403    (9.5%)

Joe Lieberman       19,859     (6.9%)

Others                      6,389      (2.2%)

Dennis Kucinich         3,157       (1.1%)

Dick Gephardt               422       (0.1%)

Al Sharpton                    362       (0.1%)

Total votes cast         289,432      (100%)

 Turnout

The Republican primary was uncontested.  Even so, George Bush managed to receive only 77.9% of the vote.  This compares with the 86.4% of the vote Ronald Reagan received in 1984, when Harold Stassen was on the ballot against him; and the 82.1% of the vote that the unopposed Bill Clinton received in 1996.  The Democratic candidates for president received 11.9% of the Republican vote on write-ins.  

There were just under 692,702 registered voters in New Hampshire for the Presidential Primary.  New Hampshire neither purges inactive voters from its lists, nor identifies them.  Using the same percentage of inactive voters from the Iowa lists, means that there were an estimated 634,515 eligible voters for the New Hampshire primary.  The turnout was about 45.6% overall.  About 29.8% of the Republicans voted, 79.0% of the Democrats voted, and 41.6% of the independents cast ballots. Of the voters who had no party preference and declared themselves for one of the parties on election day, 7,692 voted in the Republican Primary and 95,510 voted in the Democratic Primary.

Interestingly, there were 8,301 write-in votes for Democrats in the Republican primary, very close to the 7,692 independents who cast ballots in the Republican primary.  That means that there were probably no more than 500 staunch Republicans, out of 200,000, who preferred any of the Democratic candidates to George W. Bush.  The Republican leaning independents are a different story.

New Hampshire allows voters with no party preference to come to the polls on Primary Day, declare for a party, vote and then return to undeclared status before leaving the polling place.  Of the 103,202 voters who declared for a party on Primary Day, 80,601 returned to undeclared status before leaving the polls.  That means that 27.8% of the primary vote in New Hampshire was cast by independent voters, more than 1 ballot in 4.

The turnout in 2004 was almost identical to 1996, the last time there was a contested and uncontested primary in New Hampshire.  The bad news is that the current crop of presidential candidates is very, very weak.  This does not bode well for the next four years.

In 1996, Clinton got 78,769 votes in his uncontested primary and ran first.  This compares to Bush’s third place finish and 54,019 votes.  Buchanan, who “won” the 1996 Republican primary, received 60,516; Dole got 56,128; Alexander – 49,155; Forbes 26,833; Lugar – 11,259; Keyes – 5,863; Taylor – 3,117; Dornan – 539 and others – 6,249 for a total vote of 298,819.  So, the 2004 turnout is 9,387 votes lower than 1996, although New Hampshire has continued to grow rapidly.

In 2000, with contested primaries in both parties, 88,753 more people cast ballots than in 1996.  A total of 387,572 people voted in the primary, and 578,656 voted in the November General election.  Bush carried New Hampshire in November, 2000 with 273,000 votes.

In the 2000 primary, McCain got 115,545; Gore – 76,527; Bush – 71,121; Bradley – 70,295; Forbes – 29,615; Keyes – 15,170; Bauer – 1,671; Hatch – 147; others –5,413 and write-ins – 2,068.

In other words, the voters are not enthusiastic about any of the candidates running for President this year.  This means that the turnout in November will be low, the race will be close, the emerging government will be closely divided and the country is in for more rough sledding.  Neither the Republican Party nor the Democratic Party is presenting a platform that resonates with the needs of the people.   

Presidential Primary Election
January 27, 2004

President of the United States - Democratic
 

Presidential Primary Election
January 27, 2004

President of the United States - Republican

Results worksheet

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