Israel’s Hamas Truce
and Syria Negotiations are Prelude to Iran Attack
Israel is busy making
peace with Hamas and Syria to free itself to attack Iran, possibly in
conjunction with the United States.
George Sawma, Lebanon expert at the
Institute of Election Analysis, says that Israel’s desire for peace with
Lebanon is thwarted by Hezbollah. “Without
Iran,” Mr. Sawma says, “Hezbollah is finished.” Israel’s invasion of Lebanon two years ago
came to grief at the hands of Hezbollah.
Israeli military doctrine dictates payback, plus.
According to Sawma, Israel’s
desire of defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon is driving Israeli preparations for an
attack on Iran.
This attack will probably take place after the November
elections in the United States, during George Bush’s lame duck period. The United States, given the current claims
of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, if not directly participating in the
attack, will certainly give Israel all possible assistance.
The result of an attack on Iran will be a general war in
the Middle East. Iran’s logical response
would be to provide weapons and fighters to the Shiaa
in Iraq’s south, basically to try to annex the Iraqi Shiaa
to Iran. Meanwhile, Iran could resume
arming Iraqi Kurds in the north, while granting autonomy to its own Kurds, thus
creating the nucleus of a Kurdistan that would try to annex the Kurdish portion
of Turkey.
This would create a big headache for NATO, of which
Turkey is a member. Turkey without Kurds might have a stronger Islamic identity
policy. It would also result in the
dismemberment of Iraq, a policy favored by many in the Pentagon.
If the attack takes place after the United States presidential
election, especially if Barack Obama
wins; this could be another major chapter in the ongoing constitutional crisis
that started ten years ago with Bill Clinton’s impeachment, and then moved on
into the stolen election of 2000 which brought Bush to power, and the
declaration of a national state of emergency in the wake of the 9/11
attacks.
There
is a distinct possibility that the military would resist expanding the war in
the Middle East on the orders of a lame duck president; especially if the
military itself and the president-elect were opposed to the move.
This analysis
omits any mention of Iran using the oil weapon or closing the Straits of Hormuz
by attacking tankers, another likely scenario in place of, or in addition to
the above. Germany is currently calling
for an additional 6,000 NATO troops for Afghanistan. With war in Iran, the wars in Afghanistan and
Iraq would be linked geographically into one big battlefield. Jerome Frank, in his book Bush On the Couch,
predicted that Bush would become more intransigent and belligerent in the face
of failure.
This is the IEA’s nightmare scenario
for the 2008 presidential election: a newly elected president McCain or Obama, AND a war with Iran.
Boys, get those draft cards ready.
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