Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey, Proves that Biden Won in a Fair Election

In the immediate aftermath of the 2020 presidential election, allegations were made that there had been fraud in the big cities in the swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Georgia. These claims were easily disproved. Biden's margin in Philadelphia was 4,227 vote smaller than Hillary's, Wayne County's (Detroit) turnout was 6% lower than the rest of Michigan, Biden would have won Wisconsin even without the votes by which he bested Clinton in Milwaukee, and the Atlanta area in Georgia produced only half of the votes Biden needed to gain in order to overcome Clinton's deficit and squeak to victory. (For a complete exposition, go to http://www.leinsdorf.com/2020/2020%20Election%20Analysis.htm)

So, if Biden didn't win in the cities, he must have won outside them. Most of the 159 million votes were cast outside the cities in states that were solidly for either Trump or Biden. So, the best place to look for evidence of election fraud is in these areas where most of the ballots were cast.

Atlantic Highlands, New Jersey, where I live, is a small borough of fewer than 4,400 people. It is a swing municipality, either party can win there, and they often do at the same time. In 2016, it was almost evenly divided between Republicans and Democrats. In 2020, Atlantic Highlands went heavily for Biden. By comparing new registrants, party enrollment, and ballots cast, I will show that Atlantic Highlands behaved just like the rest of the country. By closely examining that microcosm and extrapolating to the macrocosm, most fair-minded observers would be forced to conclude that most probably there was no fraud and that Biden won in a fair election. When a candidate wins by 7 million votes (4.4%), the likelihood is that that candidate won.

Atlantic Highlands is overwhelmingly white with a smattering of Hispanics, Asians, and a few blacks. For the November 2020 election, there were 3,839 registered voters, up 327 (9%) from 3,517 four years before. There were 1,476 (38.4%) Unaffiliated, 1,286 (33.5%) Democratic, and 1,026 (26.7%) Republican voters; with another 48 (1.3%) enrolled in the Conservative, Constitution, Green, Libertarian, Natural Law, Reform and Socialist Parties. Atlantic Highlands is less transient than the rest of New Jersey and the nation. Most of the residents own their own homes.

Registered Voters 2016 versus 2020

Location	2016	2020	Number increase	Percentage increase
United States	200,081,377	214,303,459	14,222,082	7.1%
New Jersey	5,808,260	6,486,299	678,039	11.6%
Atlantic Highlands	3,517	3,839	322	9.2%

Voter Turnout 2020 Compared to 2016

Location	2016	2020	Number increase	Percentage increase
United States	136,669,237	158,381,459	21,712,222	15.8%
New Jersey	3,957,303	4,635,580	678,227	17.1%
Atlantic Highlands	2,561	2,945	384	14.9%

New Jersey was not a swing state. It was assumed by both camps that it would go for Biden. So, why would Biden devote resources to cheat to rig an election he was bound to win honestly? Voters in New Jersey did not receive telephone calls and were not bombarded with television or on-line advertisements for either Biden or Trump.

Yet, New Jersey voted like the rest of the country, with a higher increase in registered voters (9.2% versus 7.1%) and a slightly lower percentage of increase of ballots cast (14.9% versus 15.8%). Note the incredible coincidence that New Jersey registered 678,039 new voters since 2016 and cast 678,227 more ballots ‒ a difference of only 188.

The 14.9% vote increase in Atlantic Highlands is in line with the country's 15.8% and New Jersey's 17.1%. So, Atlantic Highlands is typical in both the increase in registered voters and in ballots cast.

There was the same massive turnout all over the country, both in swing states and in states that went heavily for both Biden and Trump.

Voter Turnout

	2016	2020	Change
United States	68.3%	73.9%	+5.6%
New Jersey	68.1%	71.5%	+3.4%
Atlantic Highlands	72.8%	76.7%	+3.9%

It's clear that voter turnout increased both in number and percentage. The two combined resulted in a historic increase. Atlantic Highlands higher voter turnout baseline is probably due to its lower population mobility.

Furthermore, because of the pandemic, New Jersey went to an all-mail election (legally ‒ the legislature passed the bills) where ballots were automatically sent to all registered voters. The comparison of turnout figures from 2016 to 2020 shows that sending ballots to all registered voters does not result in disproportionately more people casting ballots. In other words, it is not the ease or difficulty of casting a ballot that determines turnout, it's whether the voter can identify a candidate or issue they care enough about to bother.

Also, without voting machines, there was no way to blame the software for flipping votes from Trump to Biden. Trump's campaign didn't even claim there was election fraud in New Jersey.

Two-Party Vote

	2016	2020	Change
United States	94.2%	98.2%	+4.0%
New Jersey	94.7%	96.8%	+2.1%
Atlantic Highlands	94.1%	96.8%	+2.7%

The two-party vote in Atlantic Highlands was 94.1% in 2016 compared to 96.7% in 2020. That means that 2.6%, or one in forty voters, who voted for a minor party candidate in 2016 decided to pick between the Republican and Democratic candidate in 2020. The decline in minor party support was even stronger in the country than in New Jersey, indicating that in the competitive states, even more minor party voters compromised in order to pick between the major party candidates.

So, what happened in Atlantic Highlands?

Atlantic Highlands	2016		2020		Number increase	Percentage increase
Trump	1,197	46.7%	1,209	41.0%	12	1.0%
Clinton/Biden	1,214	47.4%	1,642	55.7%	428	35.2%

In 2020, Trump got 1,209 votes, 12 more than in 2016. As there were only 1,026 registered Republicans, that means at least 183 non-Republicans voted for Trump.

Biden got 1,642 votes, 428 more than Clinton in 2016. As there were only 1,286 registered Democrats in Atlantic Highlands, that means at least 356 non-Democrats voted for Biden. The 183 non-Republicans who voted for Trump plus the 356 non-Democrats who voted for Biden comes to 539, 36.5% of the number of unaffiliated voters.

Candidate Votes Compared to Party Registration

Year	Candidate	Votes	Party Registration	Other	% of vote
2016	Clinton	1,214	1,031	183	15%
2016	Trump	1,197	984	213	17.8%
2020	Biden	1,642	1,286	356	21.6%
2020	Trump	1,209	1,026	183	15.1%

In 2016, 396 voters beyond total party registration voted for either Trump or Clinton. Just as the results of the election were close, the non-party vote broke for Trump 53.7% - 46.3%. In 2020, the non-party vote rose 36.1% to 539, but broke for Biden 66% to 34%, or almost 2 to 1.

Party Enrollment of Registered Voters in Atlantic Highlands 2016 and 2020

Year	Democrats	Republicans	Unaffiliated	Total^*
2016	1,031	984	1,472	3,494
2020	1,286	1,026	1,476	3,839
Difference	+255 (24.7%)	+42 (4.2%)	+4 (0.2%)	+345 (9.6%)

^* Includes minor party enrollees.

While Republicans gained 42 new registrants in the past four years in Atlantic Highlands, Democrats gained 255, more than 6 to 1. In 2016, Republicans and Democrats were separated by only 47. Four years later, it is 213.

Atlantic Highlands, a small suburban virtually all-white town, voted the same way the rest of the nation voted.

In 2020, Trump got 11,231,919 (17.8%) more votes than he did four years ago. Biden got 15,415,353 (23.4%) more than Clinton to win by just over 7 million votes. In Atlantic Highlands' Biden got 428 (35.1%) more votes than Clinton, which is why Biden won. Atlantic Highlands had a totally legitimate election. As it voted similarly to the rest of the state and nation, that would indicate that the vote in the rest of the country was legitimate also.

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf