The Genius of Democracy – Voters Reprise the 2000
Presidential Election in the Democratic Party Nomination Process
The primary
races have finally come to an end. Obama ended on a strong note, winning the Montana primary
102,356 (56.4%) to Clinton’s 74,812 (41.2%) with 4,168 (2.3%) for neither. Montana was the first state Obama carried where the Democratic turnout exceeded Kerry’s
vote totals in 2004. Clinton carried
South Dakota 54,179 (55.3%) to Obama’s 43,726
(44.6%). South Dakota’s turnout,
however, was average. Over 36 million ballots were cast. And the winner is…? Actually, Hillary Clinton is ahead in the
popular vote while Barack Obama
is ahead in caucus attendees and pledged and unpledged delegates. Clinton won 17,379,348 (48.25%) to Obama’s 17,247,202 (47.89%) with 1,390,160 (3.86%) going to
others.
So, what is
going on? The Democrats are trying to
answer a question left over from the 2000 presidential election, namely, who or
what was responsible for the Bush, the loser, winning the White House eight
years ago. In the 2000 presidential
race, Al Gore won the popular vote by 538,000; but Bush seemed poised to carry
Florida by 300 which would give him more electoral votes than Gore. The contest dragged on for 36 days through
the courts and in the forum of public opinion with the final result going to
Bush. Gore was too much of a wimp to
carry the contest on through the prescribed constitutional processes, namely
the Electoral College and, failing that, the House of Representatives. The argument was that the American people
could not take the uncertainty. Better
to accept a certain loser than fight to the end for the winner of the popular vote.
The results of that race, the first
external attack on American soil since 1812, massive deficits, foreign wars and
a deteriorating economy are the logical consequences of an election where
technical details were used to thwart the clear will of the voters.
The Democratic
Party has now decided to adopt the same flawed processes in its own nomination
procedures, thereby admitting its own complicity in the Bush election. The same party leaders who have been
pressuring Clinton to concede defeat and quit for the supposed good of the
party even though she leads in the popular vote must have been the same people
urging Al Gore to quit the fight in 2000 for the purported good of the
country. Clearly, the race between
Clinton and Obama is a tie with each candidate at
about 48%, one ahead by one measure, the other ahead
by other measures. The party leadership
is loath to allow the process to continue in its prescribed path to a brokered
convention in August. Just as in the
2000 presidential race, the pressure is on to short circuit
the democratic procedures and decide on one or the other. The putative reason for this abrogation of
its own rules is that the continued contest only strengthens John McCain’s
chances in November. Better to decide
now on a candidate who trails in the popular vote (and will therefore trail in
the popular vote in November) than wait until August to see what is the real
will of the voters as expressed through the prescribed procedures of the
convention.
It is ironic that the Democratic Party punished Florida
and Michigan for violating its rules regarding the timing of the primaries, but
then does not want to follow its own rules for the nomination of the
presidential candidate. Regardless,
unless Hillary Clinton drops out, which she can not do, Obama
will not be the Democratic nominee until the Democratic convention convenes in
Denver at the end of August. This race
is about who is a quitter and who was responsible for Gore quitting eight years
ago. The result of not following the prescribed
constitutional processes for resolving contested presidential elections is an
administration that has been in flagrant violation of the constitution on many,
many issues. Voters want to know who is
willing to fight and follow the constitution.
A
lot will happen in the next three months.
Three months is a long time in politics.
When the Democratic convention convenes in August, television viewers
will witness a convention where the delegates will be almost evenly split
between Clinton supporters and Obama supporters. There is still a long way to go until
November. As long as Hillary Clinton
does not concede defeat, this race is far from over regardless of what the
party leaders and media pundits think. The Democratic party
punished Florida and Michigan for holding their primaries early. Now, it’s trying to punish the whole country
by choosing the nominee early.
|
Primaries |
Clinton |
Obama |
Others |
Kerry Vote |
|
|
NH- Dem |
112,215 |
104,772 |
67,081 |
340,511 |
83.42% |
|
NH Rep |
1,743 |
1,800 |
1,080 |
|
|
|
Michigan |
328,309 |
238,168 |
27,931 |
2,479,166 |
23.98% |
|
SC |
141,128 |
295,091 |
96,008 |
661,699 |
80.43% |
|
Alabama |
226,504 |
302,814 |
10,703 |
693,933 |
77.82% |
|
Florida |
857,208 |
569,041 |
299,015 |
3,583,544 |
48.14% |
|
Ct. |
164,831 |
179,349 |
6,328 |
857,488 |
40.88% |
|
Arizona |
229,501 |
193,126 |
29,260 |
893,524 |
50.57% |
|
Arkansas |
217,313 |
80,774 |
8,117 |
469,953 |
65.16% |
|
California |
2,421,995 |
1,997,749 |
258,044 |
6,745,485 |
69.35% |
|
Delaware |
40,751 |
51,124 |
4,466 |
200,152 |
48.13% |
|
Georgia |
328,129 |
700,366 |
26,336 |
1,366,155 |
77.21% |
|
Illinois |
662,845 |
1,301,954 |
51,317 |
2,891,550 |
69.72% |
|
Mass. |
704,591 |
511,887 |
30,293 |
1,803,800 |
69.12% |
|
Missouri |
395,287 |
405,284 |
19,564 |
1,259,171 |
65.13% |
|
NJ |
602,576 |
492,186 |
25,006 |
1,911,430 |
58.58% |
|
NM |
73,105 |
71,396 |
4,239 |
370,942 |
40.10% |
|
NY |
1,003,623 |
697,914 |
47,296 |
4,314,280 |
40.54% |
|
Ok. |
228,425 |
130,087 |
54,682 |
503,966 |
81.99% |
|
Tenn. |
332,599 |
250,730 |
32,271 |
1,036,477 |
59.39% |
|
Utah |
48,719 |
70,373 |
5,147 |
241,199 |
51.51% |
|
La. |
136,959 |
220,588 |
26,801 |
820,299 |
46.85% |
|
Wa. |
315,222 |
353,563 |
21,481 |
1,510,201 |
45.71% |
|
DC |
27,326 |
85,534 |
589 |
202,970 |
55.89% |
|
Maryland |
285,440 |
464,474 |
8,869 |
1,334,493 |
56.86% |
|
Virginia |
347,579 |
623,479 |
8,492 |
1,454,742 |
67.33% |
|
Hawaii |
8,835 |
28,347 |
179 |
231,708 |
16.12% |
|
Wisconsin |
452,795 |
646,007 |
11,624 |
1,489,504 |
74.55% |
|
Ohio |
1,207,806 |
979,025 |
38,076 |
2,741,167 |
81.17% |
|
RI |
108,750 |
75,115 |
1,132 |
259,760 |
71.22% |
|
Texas |
1,478,434 |
1,382,703 |
49,855 |
2,832,704 |
102.76% |
|
Vermont |
59,640 |
91,740 |
2,962 |
184,067 |
83.85% |
|
Mississippi |
155,686 |
255,809 |
9,256 |
457,766 |
91.91% |
|
Pennsylvania |
1,259,466 |
1,046,120 |
- |
2,938,095 |
78.47% |
|
NC |
653,353 |
876,226 |
35,576 |
1,525,849 |
102.58% |
|
Indiana |
643,797 |
629,310 |
|
969,011 |
131.38% |
|
Nebraska |
43,614 |
46,279 |
3,864 |
254,328 |
36.86% |
|
W. Va. |
239,187 |
91,663 |
26,181 |
326,591 |
109.32% |
|
Kentucky |
459,160 |
209,891 |
31,732 |
712,733 |
98.32% |
|
Oregon |
245,911 |
349,262 |
5,139 |
943,163 |
63.65% |
|
SD |
54,179 |
43,726 |
- |
149,225 |
65.61% |
|
Montana |
74,812 |
102,356 |
4,168 |
173,710 |
104.39% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
17,379,348 |
17,247,202 |
1,390,160 |
54,136,511 |
66.53% |
|
|
48.25% |
47.89% |
3.86% |
|
|
|
Differenc |
(132,146) |
|
|
|
36,016,710 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Caucuses |
Clinton |
Obama |
|
Turnout |
Kerry |
|
Iowa |
68,576 |
86,863 |
|
1,521,966 |
741,898 |
|
Nevada |
5,355 |
4,773 |
|
831,833 |
397,190 |
|
Alaska |
2,130 |
6,471 |
|
314,502 |
111,025 |
|
Colorado |
35,587 |
79,344 |
|
2,148,036 |
1,001,732 |
|
Idaho |
3,655 |
16,880 |
|
612,756 |
181,098 |
|
Kansas |
9,462 |
27,172 |
|
1,213,108 |
434,993 |
|
Minn. |
68,442 |
141,527 |
|
2,842,912 |
1,445,014 |
|
ND |
6,948 |
11,625 |
|
316,049 |
111,052 |
|
Neb. |
12,445 |
26,126 |
|
792,906 |
254,328 |
|
Maine |
18,400 |
27,140 |
|
740,752 |
396,842 |
|
Wyoming |
3,312 |
5,378 |
|
245,789 |
70,776 |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
234,312 |
433,299 |
667,612 |
11,580,609 |
5,145,948 |
|
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|
|
|
|
|
|
|
35.10% |
64.90% |
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Return
to Institute of Election Analysis Home Page |
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