New Hampshire Voters Turn Out in Droves To Make A Brilliant, Difficult First Cut in the 2008 Presidential Race

            The New Hampshire Presidential Primary results point to a long, hard road to a narrow victory in November for the next President of the United States.  New Hampshire voters turned out in record numbers, 526,520 to be exact, to pass judgment on the 42 filed and 395 write-in candidates for President.  By comparison, 569,069 votes were cast for president in New Hampshire General Election in the Bush-Gore race in 2000; and 677,768 were cast in the Bush-Kerry contest four years later.  For a primary, where voters must declare a party affiliation in which to vote, gets a voter turnout 77.69% as large as the highest turnout in General Election history, where anyone can vote and the ballot is completely secret, is a tremendous accomplishment.  The primary turnout was 26.13% higher than the 2006 off-year General Election.

            The race was far more evenly balanced than the two party press would lead people to expect.  There were 21 candidates who filed in the Republican primary and 21 candidates who filed in the Democratic primary.  There were another 395 write-in candidates, 191 Republicans and 204 Democrats.  So, far from the dozen candidates covered by the media, the half million voters in New Hampshire chose from a diverse menu of 427.  In the top twenty-one was a Mayor of a major city, five Governors, five members of the House of Representatives, and seven Senators.

            New Hampshire actually has a non-partisan primary.  Although voters must choose a party primary in which to vote, 1.7176% of the Republicans, or 4,103 voters; and 0.66% of the Democrats, or 1,899 voters, cast write-in votes for candidates in the other party’s primary.  So, in the end, 236,697 (44.95%) votes were cast for the Republican candidates, about 20,000 less than the total number of registered Republicans, and 289,841 (55.05%) were cast for the Democratic candidates, almost 70,000 more than the number of registered Democrats.  If anyone thinks one party or the other is going to run away with the November election, they are not paying attention to the independent voters.  At the moment, the Democrats are in the lead, but not so far in the lead.

            So, who won?  Counting all the votes equally the results are:

1.      Hillary Clinton, 114,199 (21.69%)

2.      Barack Obama, 106,669 (20.26%)

3.      John McCain, 89,358 (16.97%)

4.      Mitt Romney, 76,056 (14.45%)

5.      John Edwards, 49,451 (9.39%)

6.      Mike Huckabee, 27,068 (5.14%)

7.      Rudolf Guliani, 20,573 (3.9%)

8.      Ron Paul, 18,536 (3.52%)

9.      Bill Richardson 13,418 (2.55%)

10.  Dennis Kucinich, 3,913 (0.74%)

11.  Fred Thompson, 2,904 (0.55%)

12.  Duncan Hunter, 1,222 (0.23%)

13.  Joe Biden, 647 (0.12%)

14.  Mike Gravel, 409 (0.077%)

15.  Richard Caligiuri, 254 (0.048%)

16.  Alan Keyes, 207 (0.039%)

17.  Chris Dodd, 205 (0.039%)

18.  Stephen Marchuk, 128 (0.024%)

19.  Kenneth Capalbo, 108 (0.021%)

20.  D. R. Hunter, 98 (0.0186%)

21.  Tom Tancredo, 80 (0.0152%)

 

I’ll stop at the top half.  Anyone interested in the candidates who received 1/100th of a percent or less should look at the total returns at the bottom.  It is well to remember, for those who complain about the smallness of the New Hampshire Primary, that Tom Tancredo is a United States Representative from Colorado who ran a serious campaign.  He got only 80 votes.  Chris Dodd, a United States Senator from Connecticut got 205.  Mike Gravel, a United States Senator from Alaska got 409 and Joe Biden a United States Senator from Delaware got 647.  Dennis Kucinich who ran an energetic, national campaign barely made it into the top ten. 

 

To put this in perspective, Obama and Clinton ran seventh and eighth respectively in the Republican Primary; they both received more Republican votes than: Duncan Hunter, a Republican Congressman from California; Alan Keyes, who lost to Obama in the Illinois Senate race and refused to congratulate Obama because of his stand on abortion; and Tom Tancredo, the anti-immigration zealot Congressman from Colorado.

 

Similarly, McCain and Romney ran sixth and eighth respectively in the Democratic Primary.  McCain ran ahead of Joe Biden, a Senator from Delaware and both ran ahead of Mike Gravel and Chris Dodd, two other Senators.  Ron Paul and Mike Huckabee also ran ahead of Dodd in the Democratic primary. Clearly, voters in New Hampshire take their franchise very seriously.

 

            While Hillary Clinton defeated Barack Obama in the Democratic Primary 112,606 (39.15%) to 105,004 (36.50%); Obama defeated Clinton in the Republican primary 1,665 (0.697%) to 1,593 (0.6669%).  Look at how close that is, 72 votes, or 0.03%.  This proves that prediction polls are a blunt instrument.  Fox News even had exit polls giving Obama 39% and Clinton 34%.  No honest exit poll could be 7.65% off the final result.  This shows that some of the polls are deliberately trying to affect the outcome of the race.

             (And Romney is out of the race.  Massachusetts candidates run well in abutting New Hampshire.  Sen. Paul Tsongas was the Democratic winner in 1992.  John Kerry won in 2004.  Romney was the Governor of the neighboring state.  But Romney’s record, even as Governor of Massachusetts, is pretty weak.  Romney got 1,091,988 votes in his winning race for Governor.  That puts him 9th out of the 19 winning gubernatorial candidates in Massachusetts since World War II.  His vote total of 27.48% of the registered voters is the second lowest in the state’s modern history.  His 1,091,988 puts him behind Dukakis’s 1986 total of 1,157,786.  Six of the eight governors whose total vote beat Romney’s won before 1964, when the state’s population was smaller and the voting age was 21.  By comparison, half a century ago, JFK was winning reelection to the Senate with 1,362,926 votes, more than a quarter million more than Romney’s total, when 1.5 million fewer voters were registered.  Even then, Kennedy only managed to barely squeak into the White House two years later, past Vice-President Richard Nixon, when no Vice-President had succeeded to the Presidency by election since Martin Van Buren, 124 years before. No, Romney should have run for re-election to the Massachusetts State House before running for President.

  He, like his father, may be a good businessman, but he is not presidential timber at this point.  If Romney is nominated, he will lose badly.)  

            New Hampshire voters should be thanked for a difficult job well done by the rest of us who rarely in our entire lives have a chance to even see, much less meet and talk to a president of the United States.  Being the object of such a campaign is not fun.  It is a lot of work and bother.  We should be grateful that our fellow citizens take this unpaid task seriously.  This election proves that the American people are not just going shopping at the mall while soldiers are dying in Iraq and Afghanistan.  The first Congressional Medal of Honor winner from the Iraq war, Marine Cpl. Jason Dunham, grew up in New Hampshire.  Do you really think his family, neighbors and friends went shopping during the months leading up to this primary?  New Hampshire is a small enough state that personal relationships matter.  Anyone can change a political opinion; but the attributes of character that really count when the unpredictable happens, that is something that can only be gleaned through repeated personal contact.  Iowa and New Hampshire voters have the job of assessing the personalities and temperaments of the presidential candidates.

            On a personal note, the New Hampshire primary has been one of the most important events in my life.  In 1968, Eugene McCarthy’s near defeat of Lyndon Johnson in the March 12, 1968 (note the late date) primary prompted me to leave graduate school and go to work on McCarthy’s campaign, where I became national press advance coordinator.  I never returned to graduate school or obtained an advanced degree, which is a small enough sacrifice compared to those made by others during the Vietnam War; but besides this website, I’m prouder of my work on the McCarthy campaign than anything else I’ve ever done.

            When I first started analyzing election returns in 1980, I had to wait two years, until the Blue Book was published, to get the complete, official results of the New Hampshire Presidential Primary.  In 1996, the New Hampshire presidential primary demonstrated the power of the internet when I was able to get almost the complete results on primary night by going on-line to a newspaper in Plymouth, New Hampshire.  A light bulb went on over my head and we decided to move to Princeton, New Jersey.  The New Hampshire Presidential Primary made me realize that the internet would make information important and instantly accessible.  So, out of the eleven New Hampshire Primaries that have taken place since I became eligible to vote, one made me quit school and another made me move.  The New Hampshire presidential primary is personal politics.  It is an important part of the presidential nominating process.

            In modern times, every president won the New Hampshire primary until Bill Clinton and three-fourths of the major party nominees.  Then George W. Bush followed suit.  The Clinton and McCain victories in their respective primaries means that a race between two New Hampshire primary winners looks like a good bet. 

 

Presidential Primary Election
January 8, 2008

President of the United States - Democratic
 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

Biden, d

Caligiuri, d

Capalbo, d

Clinton, d

Crow, d

Dodd, d

Edwards, d

Gravel, d

Hewes, d

Hughes, d

D.R.  Hunter, d

 

Belknap

               36

                 16

                    9

        4,674

                4

                    7

           2,362

                 17

               -  

                   -  

                 5

 

Carroll

               32

                   4

                    4

        3,738

                1

                    1

           1,809

                 13

                 1

                     1

                 3

 

Cheshire

               29

                 12

                  10

        6,433

                1

                  17

           3,176

                 25

                 1

                     1

                 2

 

Coos

               16

                 22

                    7

        3,132

                6

                    9

           1,600

                 13

                 1

                     1

                 1

 

Grafton

               32

                 19

                    8

        6,864

               -  

                  16

           3,398

                 28

               -  

                     4

                 3

 

Hillsborough

             196

                 76

                  22

      33,791

              16

                  75

         13,236

               152

                 8

                     1

               26

 

Merrimack

               56

                 30

                  14

      12,575

                4

                  18

           5,938

                 29

                 2

                     3

                 9

 

Rockingham

             174

                 44

                  17

      26,708

                1

                  41

         10,716

                 86

                 3

                     3

               33

 

Strafford

               49

                 24

                  10

      11,131

                3

                  14

           4,854

                 31

                 1

                     2

               12

 

Sullivan

               22

                   7

                    7

        3,560

                1

                    7

           1,729

                 10

               -  

                   -  

                 1

 

TOTALS

             642

               254

                108

    112,606

              37

                205

         48,818

               404

               17

                   16

               95

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

Keefe, d

Killeen, d

Koos, d

Kucinich, d

LaMagna, d

Laughlin, d

Obama, d

Richardson, d

Savior, d

Skok, d

Cort, r

 

Belknap

                 2

                  -  

                   -  

           125

               -  

                   -  

           4,633

               541

               -  

                   -  

               -  

 

Carroll

                 2

                   1

                    1

           182

               -  

                    3

           4,357

               670

               -  

                   -  

               -  

 

Cheshire

                 2

                   3

                    1

           604

               -  

                    6

           7,475

            1,134

                 3

                     5

               -  

 

Coos

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

             43

                1

                    4

           2,124

               347

                 4

                     2

               -  

 

Grafton

                 6

                  -  

                    2

           310

               -  

                    5

           9,794

            1,073

                 2

                   -  

               -  

 

Hillsborough

               14

                   3

                    2

           869

                6

                  12

         28,034

            3,578

                 7

                   12

               -  

 

Merrimack

                 4

                   1

                   -  

           473

               -  

                    4

         13,250

            2,034

                 5

                     1

               -  

 

Rockingham

               15

                   2

                    3

           648

               -  

                    7

         22,044

            2,330

                 8

                     9

               -  

 

Strafford

                 5

                  -  

                    1

           538

                1

                    3

           9,333

            1,074

               -  

                     2

               -  

 

Sullivan

                 1

                   1

                   -  

           109

               -  

                    3

           3,960

               458

               -  

                     1

               -  

 

TOTALS

               51

                 11

                  10

        3,901

                8

                  47

       105,004

          13,239

               29

                   32

               -  

 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

Cox, r

Fendig, Jr., r

Gilbert, r

Giuliani, r

Howard, r

Huckabee, r

Duncan    Hunter, r

Keyes, r

Klein, r

Marchuk, r

McCain, r

Mitchell,     Jr., r

Belknap

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

             13

               -  

                  13

                -  

                   1

               -  

                   -  

               38

0

Carroll

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

               3

               -  

                   -  

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               13

0

Cheshire

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

               6

               -  

                  16

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               45

0

Coos

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

               4

               -  

                  23

                -  

                 -  

               -  

 

               26

0

Grafton

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

               7

               -  

                    8

                  1

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               46

0

Hillsborough

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

             17

               -  

                  23

                  3

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

             146

0

Merrimack

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

             23

               -  

                  25

                -  

                   2

               -  

                   -  

             101

0

Rockingham

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

             45

               -  

                  65

                  1

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

             255

0

Strafford

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

             14

                1

                  23

                -  

                   1

               -  

                     5

               85

0

Sullivan

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

               2

               -  

                  13

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               33

0

TOTALS

               -  

                  -  

                   -  

           134

                1

                209

                  5

                   4

               -  

                     5

             788

0

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

O'Connor, r

Paul, r

Romney, r

Shepard, r

Supreme, r

Tancredo, r

Thompson, r

Wuensche, r

Scatter

 

 

 

Belknap

0

10

20

0

0

0

0

0

5

 

 

 

Carroll

0

4

11

0

0

0

0

0

12

 

 

 

Cheshire

0

19

26

0

0

0

0

0

4

 

 

 

Coos

0

5

8

0

0

0

0

0

6

 

 

 

Grafton

0

25

17

0

0

0

0

0

15

 

 

 

Hillsborough

0

41

111

0

0

0

1

0

46

 

 

 

Merrimack

0

40

75

0

0

0

3

0

23

 

 

 

Rockingham

0

49

186

0

0

0

6

0

32

 

 

 

Strafford

0

25

43

0

0

0

1

0

57

 

 

 

Sullivan

0

11

13

0

0

0

3

0

4

 

 

 

TOTALS

0

229

510

0

0

0

14

0

204

 

 

 

 

Belknap County

Carroll County

 Cheshire County

Coos County

Grafton County

Hillsborough County

Merrimack County

Rockingham County

Strafford County

Sullivan County

 

Presidential Primary Election
January 8, 2008

President of the United States - Republican
 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

Cort, r

Cox, r

Fendig, Jr., r

Gilbert, r

Giuliani, r

Howard, r

Huckabee, r

Duncan       Hunter, r

Keyes, r

Klein, r

Marchuk, r

Belknap

                 8

                   2

                    1

               4

         1,059

                    2

           1,453

                 77

                 9

                     2

                 5

Carroll

                 4

                   2

                    1

               2

            766

                    3

           1,055

                 33

               11

                     1

                 9

Cheshire

                 6

                   1

                    3

               3

            834

                    4

           1,749

                 81

               10

                     1

               13

Coos

                 1

                   2

                   -  

               2

            405

                    3

              860

                 17

               10

                   -  

                 5

Grafton

                 6

                   3

                    1

               5

         1,069

                    5

           1,827

                 49

               16

                     2

               17

Hillsborough

               15

                 14

                    1

               9

         6,349

                    8

           7,609

               388

               56

                     5

               30

Merrimack

                 3

                   4

                   -  

               4

         2,575

                    7

           3,543

               169

               26

                     2

                 9

Rockingham

                 7

                   6

                    4

               4

         5,271

                    7

           5,352

               264

               49

                     5

               21

Strafford

                 1

                   3

                    2

              -  

         1,553

                    4

           2,453

                 97

               12

                     1

               10

Sullivan

                 2

                   2

                   -  

              -  

            558

                    1

              958

                 42

                 4

                   -  

                 4

TOTALS

               53

                 39

                  13

             33

       20,439

                  44

         26,859

            1,217

             203

                   19

             123

   

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

McCain, r

Mitchell,     Jr., r

O'Connor, r

Paul, r

Romney, r

Shepard, r

Supreme, r

Tancredo, r

Thompson, r

Wuensche, r

Biden, d

Belknap

          4,820

                   2

                    9

           931

         4,129

                    1

                  3

                   7

             207

                     2

                 4

Carroll

          4,138

                   2

                    2

           836

         3,386

                    2

                  1

                   5

             157

                     1

               -  

Cheshire

          4,270

                   4

                    1

        1,012

         3,085

                   -  

                  3

                 10

             149

                     5

               -  

Coos

          1,958

                   2

                    5

           469

            917

                    1

                  2

                   4

               70

                     1

               -  

Grafton

          6,524

                   5

                    3

        1,451

         2,904

                    3

                  3

                   1

             227

                   11

               -  

Hillsborough

        25,447

                   7

                    7

        5,438

       25,628

                    6

                13

                 31

             775

                     7

               -  

Merrimack

        10,903

                   2

                    6

        2,313

         7,603

                    5

                  3

                 -  

             280

                     4

               -  

Rockingham

        21,236

                   5

                    8

        3,787

       21,838

                    5

                10

                 12

             609

                     6

               -  

Strafford

          6,481

                   1

                    3

        1,480

         4,418

                    3

                  3

                 10

             321

                     4

               -  

Sullivan

          2,793

                  -  

                    1

           590

         1,638

                    1

                -  

                 -  

               95

                     3

                 1

TOTALS

        88,570

                 30

                  45

      18,307

       75,546

                  27

                41

                 80

          2,890

                   44

                 5

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

Caligiuri, d

Capalbo, d

Clinton, d

Crow, d

Dodd, d

Edwards, d

Gravel, d

Hewes, d

Hughes, d

D.R.  Hunter, d

Keefe, d

Belknap

               -  

                  -  

                124

              -  

               -  

                  59

                  1

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Carroll

               -  

                  -  

                  52

              -  

               -  

                  27

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Cheshire

               -  

                  -  

                119

               7

               -  

                  54

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Coos

               -  

                  -  

                  79

              -  

               -  

                  39

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Grafton

               -  

                  -  

                  96

              -  

               -  

                  45

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Hillsborough

               -  

                  -  

                237

              -  

               -  

                  88

                  1

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Merrimack

               -  

                  -  

                272

              -  

               -  

                  92

                  1

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Rockingham

               -  

                  -  

                364

              -  

               -  

                125

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

Strafford

               -  

                  -  

                177

              -  

               -  

                  78

                -  

                 -  

               -  

                     3

               -  

Sullivan

               -  

                  -  

                  73

              -  

               -  

                  26

                  2

                 -  

               -  

                   -  

               -  

TOTALS

               -  

                  -  

             1,593

               7

               -  

                633

                  5

                 -  

               -  

                     3

               -  

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

SUMMARY BY COUNTIES

Killeen, d

Koos, d

Kucinich, d

LaMagna, d

Laughlin, d

Obama, d

Richardson, d

Savior, d

Skok, d

Scatter

 

Belknap

0

0

0

1

0

149

11

0

0

10

 

Carroll

0

0

0

0

0

81

14

0

0

5

 

Cheshire

0

0

3

0

0

144

31

0

0

2

 

Coos

0

0

0

0

0

58

7

0

0

9

 

Grafton

0

0

0

0

0

151

12

0

0

0

 

Hillsborough

0

0

4

0

0

244

26

0

0

86

 

Merrimack

0

0

3

0

0

257

33

0

0

10

 

Rockingham

0

0

1

0

0

343

24

0

0

61

 

Strafford

0

0

0

0

0

158

16

0

0

7

 

Sullivan

0

0

1

0

0

80

5

0

0

1

 

TOTALS

0

0

12

1

0

1665

179

0

0

191

 

 

Belknap County

Carroll County

Cheshire County

 Coos County

Grafton County

Hillsborough County

Merrimack County

Rockingham County

Strafford County

Sullivan County

 

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf