Nebraska and West Virginia Primaries Make Popular Vote a Dead Heat in Democratic Race

            Hillary Clinton trounced Barack Obama in the West Virginia presidential primary to take a 3,319 vote lead out of 34,436,374 votes cast so far the Democratic presidential contest.  [This tops the 34,221,344 votes received by John F. Kennedy in the 1960 presidential election.] The two candidates are virtually tied: 16,545,286 (48.05%) for Clinton, 16,541,967 (48.04%) for Obama and 1,349,121 (3.92%) for others.

            West Virginia voted 239,187 (61.8%) for Clinton, 91,663 (23.7%) for Obama and 26,181 (6.7%) for John Edwards.  The turnout of 387,031 is 109.32% of Kerry’s vote in West Virginia in 2004, making West Virginia the second highest turnout state in the primary season to date.

            The best thing about the West Virginia primary is that the full legal names of the candidates are the only ones allowed on the ballot. (See below).

            In Nebraska, Obama edged past Clinton 46,279 to 43,614 with Mike Gravel garnering 3,864.  Last February, on Super Tuesday, Nebraska held caucuses for Democratic delegates.  Obama beat Clinton 26,126 to 12,445 in caucus attendees.  Almost 2.5 times as many people voted in the Democratic primary as attended the Democratic caucuses.  Obama’s 2 to 1 majority in caucuses and delegates dwindled to a plurality of 49.36%, not even a majority among Democrats.  Nebraska’s 36.86% turnout compared to Kerry’s 2004 vote was the third lowest in the Democratic primary season after Hawaii and Michigan.

This proves that the low turnout caucuses favor Obama’s constituency by about 1/3rd.  It took 1,611 caucus attendees for each delegate from Nebraska compared to 12,642 voters for each delegate from California.  So, each caucus attendee’s appearance in Nebraska was worth 7.84 voters in California. 

            It is also clear that there is no way the Democratic candidate will carry Nebraska in November.  In the Republican primary, John McCain received 118,065 and Ron Paul got 17,647.  Even combining Ron Paul’s vote with all the Democrats, McCain’s vote is bigger by 6,661.  So, McCain will carry Nebraska in November. 

Analysis - Counting all the Votes

            At the moment, Obama is considered to be ahead because the votes from Florida and Michigan do not count.  John Edwards dropped out of the race after Florida, so that race counted for him and the rest of the country.  Regardless of the rules of the Democratic National Committee or the agreement of the candidates, the voters who traipsed to the polls in Florida and Michigan expected and are entitled to have their votes counted.  If the Democratic leadership thinks it can win in November with a candidate nominated by ignoring Florida and Michigan’s 2,319,672 votes, 6.7% or more than 1/15th of the total, good luck.

            Also, excluding Florida and Michigan opens a pandora’s box of possibilities for partisan interference in the future.  Opposition parties in control of the legislature and governor could disenfranchise voters in its state by promulgating rules or scheduling primaries that would be disallowed by the other party, thereby increasing its own candidate’s chance to win.  Maybe that is the purpose.

The Civil Right to Vote

            The position of Barack Obama on this issue is like a bad joke.  The American Civil Rights movement is based on the struggle to secure the right to vote.  Yet, here is the most successful black candidate for president in history, with 90% black support, arguing against counting all the votes for purely partisan political reasons.  What this proves is that while the white voters have shown that they can overcome their racial prejudices by supporting Obama, the blacks have yet to demonstrate the same.  The black position in these primaries is like the Israelis.  Any criticism of Obama is called racism just as any criticism of Israel is called anti-Semetism.  So the blacks are repudiating the basis of their own liberation from Jim Crow America by a margin of 90%.  Good work.  Then again, Barack Obama’s roots are in Africa, not in the domestic civil rights movement, like so many black and white Americans.

            Hillary Clinton’s record is really no better.  As an attorney with the House Impeachment Committee back in the 1970’s she helped remove Richard Nixon from office and bring the current crop of cheats to power.  This is why the race is so close and voters just can’t choose between these two equally partisan and unpalatable candidates.  One thing is clear, however, if the Democrats stand any hope of beating John McCain, Clinton and Obama will have to be on the ticket together. 

            McCain’s record on democracy is no better.  After being personally maligned by Bush in the 2000 South Carolina primary, he, the great patriot and prisoner of war, could have been the one vote in the Senate needed to challenge the Florida returns in the electoral college.  Instead of standing up for people’s right to vote with Gore, a fellow war veteran, he decided to let Gore’s 538,000 vote margin go by the boards and let the vote count stop in Florida thus ensuring the election of war shirker George Bush. 

            So, the country is faced with a choice between three similar, equally partisan, unappealing candidates.  That’s why it’s so close.  

Coups d’etat

Really, there have been three coups d’etat in the United States in the past half century.  Kennedy’s assassination in 1963, the removal of Richard Nixon from office in 1974, an attempted coup against Bill Clinton through impeachment in 1998, and the stolen election in 2000.  Voters are trying to determine which, if any, of the current candidates really stands for the people’s right to self-government.

            Barack Obama’s extraordinary success coming from nowhere is the Republican strategy for victory in 2008.  Bush may be for phony science in the climate debate, birth control and creationism; but the Republicans are state of the art practitioners of psychological warfare.  Bush I was director of the CIA.  The CIA specializes in overthrowing governments and rigging elections.  Who else but the son of a CIA director could become president after losing the election?  Now, to save the war in Iraq, Bush is pulling out all the stops to elect John McCain.  The best strategy…Barack Obama as the Democratic nominee. 

            Obama’s coalition rests on three legs: the anti-war movement (which includes the young and college educated), the blacks voting as a monolithic bloc, and the Hillary hating misogynists.  Once Obama faces McCain, many of the voters who supported him because they hate Hillary and/or women will go to McCain.  Will they be replaced by former Hillary supporters? Largely, yes.  But if the October surprise is a peace offensive in mid-October, with Bush, Abbas, and Olmert on the White House lawn signing documents, shaking hands and making smiles, like Kissinger’s Peace is at Hand speech before the 1972 election, McCain will claim that the war in Iraq was a success by making a Middle East peace possible and clobber Obama on Election Day.

            That the agreement breaks down in a month and Bush orders the bombing of Iran during his lame duck period is beside the point.  The voters will have been manipulated and screwed into another four years of catastrophe.

The Corruption of the Commercial Media

The media is also in on the game. It didn’t even cover the Nebraska presidential primary, one of only two contests on May 13, 2008. How much more irresponsible can it get?  Why don’t the 229,469 primary voters in Nebraska count?  Nebraska’s primary took place after February 5th, complying with the rules.  Because no delegates are selected as a result and the results undermine the argument for treating caucus selected delegates on a par with primary elected delegates. And John McCain is the presumptive nominee. 

After Obama’s brilliant and excellent speech on race, the logical question to ask him was, “After what you said in your speech, Senator Obama, what is your position on reparations?”  Nothing.  The fourth estate is sleeping at the switch, and, because his opponents in the Democratic primaries cannot be seen as bashing Obama and hurting his chances in November, voters are left in the dark on his position on issues.  That’s why he can’t close the deal.  But the media supports Obama because he has the biggest advertising budget and the executives are mostly right wing Republicans.

Three Senators

            Clinton, McCain and Obama are similar also in the fact that they are all senators.  No president has been elected directly from the Senate since Warren G. Harding in 1920.  About half the presidents in the past century have been governors.  Senators Truman and Nixon became president after serving as Vice-President.  Senators Kennedy and Johnson both served in the House of Representatives.  Neither Senator Clinton nor Senator Obama has served in the House.  Senator McCain has.

The Voter Rebellion of 2008

            Another reason the race is so close all around is that the voters are resisting pressure from the media and the professional politicians to hurry up and make this difficult decision.  Super Tuesday was designed by the politicians to get the nomination process over with as quickly as possible.  In the absence of a clearly qualified front runner, the voters are turning out in record numbers to take their time making this tough decision.  Why should voters decide on the candidates in February, or even May or June, when the conventions do not take place until the summer and the election isn’t until November?

            Furthermore, severing the presidential primaries from the other primaries is a disaster in governmental terms regardless of who wins the White House.  Historically, insurgent challenges like the Obama – Clinton contest would have resulted in a lot of new blood being brought into the congress in the solidly Democratic districts where Republicans can’t win.  The professional politicians and media have reduced the presidency to a half a billion dollar popularity contest.

The Genius and Subtlety of the Voters

            The incredible thing about the May 13, 2008 primaries is that West Virginia voted 109.32% of Kerry’s 2004 vote while Nebraska voted 36.86%.  That left Clinton with a 3,319 vote margin nationwide.  All Nebraska would have had to do is match West Virginia’s turnout and Clinton’s 3,319 margin would have been a 1,920 margin for Obama.

Primaries

 Clinton

 Obama

 Others

 Kerry Vote

NH- Dem

               112,215

               104,772

                 67,081

               340,511

83.42%

NH Rep

                    1,743

                    1,800

                    1,080

Michigan

               328,309

               238,168

                 27,931

           2,479,166

23.98%

SC

               141,128

               295,091

                 96,008

               661,699

80.43%

Alabama

               226,504

               302,814

                 10,703

               693,933

77.82%

Florida

               857,208

               569,041

               299,015

           3,583,544

48.14%

Ct.

               164,831

               179,349

                    6,328

               857,488

40.88%

Arizona

               229,501

               193,126

                 29,260

               893,524

50.57%

Arkansas

               217,313

                 80,774

                    8,117

               469,953

65.16%

California

           2,421,995

           1,997,749

               258,044

           6,745,485

69.35%

Delaware

                 40,751

                 51,124

                    4,466

               200,152

48.13%

Georgia

               328,129

               700,366

                 26,336

           1,366,155

77.21%

Illinois

               662,845

           1,301,954

                 51,317

           2,891,550

69.72%

Mass.

               704,591

               511,887

                 30,293

           1,803,800

69.12%

Missouri

               395,287

               405,284

                 19,564

           1,259,171

65.13%

NJ

               602,576

               492,186

                 25,006

           1,911,430

58.58%

NM

                 73,105

                 71,396

                    4,239

               370,942

40.10%

NY

           1,003,623

               697,914

                 47,296

           4,314,280

40.54%

Ok.

               228,425

               130,087

                 54,682

               503,966

81.99%

Tenn.

               332,599

               250,730

                 32,271

           1,036,477

59.39%

Utah

                 48,719

                 70,373

                    5,147

               241,199

51.51%

La.

               136,959

               220,588

                 26,801

               820,299

46.85%

Wa.

               315,222

               353,563

                 21,481

           1,510,201

45.71%

DC

                 27,326

                 85,534

                       589

               202,970

55.89%

Maryland

               285,440

               464,474

                    8,869

           1,334,493

56.86%

Virginia

               347,579

               623,479

                    8,492

           1,454,742

67.33%

Hawaii

                    8,835

                 28,347

                       179

               231,708

16.12%

Wisconsin

               452,795

               646,007

                 11,624

           1,489,504

74.55%

Ohio

           1,207,806

               979,025

                 38,076

           2,741,167

81.17%

RI

               108,750

                 75,115

                    1,132

               259,760

71.22%

Texas

           1,478,434

           1,382,703

                 49,855

           2,832,704

102.76%

Vermont

                 59,640

                 91,740

                    2,962

               184,067

83.85%

Mississippi

               155,686

               255,809

                    9,256

               457,766

91.91%

Pennsylvania

           1,259,466

           1,046,120

                           -  

           2,938,095

78.47%

NC

               653,353

               876,226

                 35,576

           1,525,849

102.58%

Indiana

               643,797

               629,310

               969,011

131.38%

Nebraska

                 43,614

                 46,279

                    3,864

               254,328

36.86%

W. Va.

               239,187

                 91,663

                 26,181

               326,591

109.32%

 

         16,545,286

         16,541,967

           1,349,121

         52,157,680

66.02%

48.05%

48.04%

3.92%

Difference

                 (3,319)

         34,436,374

 

WVVotes.com - Election Results Center

State Wide Results

Unofficial Results

Number of Counties

55

Counties Reported

55

 

U.S. President

 

Party

Candidate

Votes

 

REP

Willard Mitt Romney

5195

 

DEM

Hillary Rodham Clinton

239187

 

DEM

Barack Hussein Obama

91663

 

REP

John Sidney McCain III

89654

 

REP

Ronald Ernest Paul

6112

 

DEM

John Reid Edwards

26181

 

REP

Rudolph William Giuliani

2839

 

REP

Jerry Ralph Curry

728

 

REP

Michael Dale Huckabee

12184

 

REP

Alan L. Keyes

1424

 

Total Votes (All Parties):

475167

 

Nebraska Presidential Primary May 13, 2008

 

Party

Race

District

Candidate

votes

Percentage

Republican

President

 

John McCain

118065

87%

Republican

President

 

Ron Paul

17647

13%

 

Democrat

President

 

Hillary Clinton

43614

47%

Democrat

President

 

Mike Gravel

3864

4%

Democrat

President

 

Barack Obama

46279

49%

 

Nebraska

President

 

Don J. Grundmann

37

47%

Nebraska

President

 

Bryan Malatesta

18

23%

Nebraska

President

 

Diane Beall Templin

24

30%

 

Green

President

 

Jesse Johnson

13

19%

Green

President

 

Cynthia McKinney

38

57%

Green

President

 

Kent Mesplay

8

12%

Green

President

 

Kat Swift

8

12%

 

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf