Nebraska and West Virginia
Primaries Make Popular Vote a Dead Heat in Democratic Race
Hillary Clinton trounced Barack Obama in the West Virginia
presidential primary to take a 3,319 vote lead out of 34,436,374 votes cast so
far the Democratic presidential contest.
[This tops the 34,221,344 votes received by John F. Kennedy in the 1960
presidential election.] The two candidates are virtually tied: 16,545,286
(48.05%) for Clinton, 16,541,967 (48.04%) for Obama
and 1,349,121 (3.92%) for others.
West Virginia voted 239,187 (61.8%)
for Clinton, 91,663 (23.7%) for Obama and 26,181
(6.7%) for John Edwards. The turnout of
387,031 is 109.32% of Kerry’s vote in West Virginia in 2004, making West
Virginia the second highest turnout state in the primary season to date.
The best thing about the West
Virginia primary is that the full legal names of the candidates are the only
ones allowed on the ballot. (See below).
In
Nebraska, Obama edged past Clinton 46,279 to 43,614
with Mike Gravel garnering 3,864. Last
February, on Super Tuesday, Nebraska held caucuses for Democratic
delegates. Obama
beat Clinton 26,126 to 12,445 in caucus attendees. Almost 2.5 times as many people voted in the
Democratic primary as attended the Democratic caucuses. Obama’s 2 to 1
majority in caucuses and delegates dwindled to a plurality of 49.36%, not even
a majority among Democrats. Nebraska’s
36.86% turnout compared to Kerry’s 2004 vote was the third lowest in the
Democratic primary season after Hawaii and Michigan.
This proves that the low turnout caucuses
favor Obama’s constituency by about 1/3rd. It took 1,611 caucus attendees for each
delegate from Nebraska compared to 12,642 voters for each delegate from
California. So, each caucus attendee’s
appearance in Nebraska was worth 7.84 voters in California.
It is
also clear that there is no way the Democratic candidate will carry Nebraska in
November. In the Republican primary,
John McCain received 118,065 and Ron Paul got 17,647. Even combining Ron Paul’s vote with all the
Democrats, McCain’s vote is bigger by 6,661.
So, McCain will carry Nebraska in November.
Analysis
- Counting all the Votes
At the moment, Obama is
considered to be ahead because the votes from Florida and Michigan do not
count. John Edwards dropped out of the
race after Florida, so that race counted for him and the rest of the
country. Regardless of the rules of the
Democratic National Committee or the agreement of the candidates, the voters who
traipsed to the polls in Florida and Michigan expected and are entitled to have
their votes counted. If the Democratic
leadership thinks it can win in November with a candidate nominated by ignoring
Florida and Michigan’s 2,319,672 votes, 6.7% or more than 1/15th of
the total, good luck.
Also, excluding Florida and Michigan opens a pandora’s box of possibilities for partisan interference in
the future. Opposition parties in
control of the legislature and governor could disenfranchise voters in its
state by promulgating rules or scheduling primaries that would be disallowed by
the other party, thereby increasing its own candidate’s chance to win. Maybe that is the purpose.
The
Civil Right to Vote
The position of Barack Obama on this issue is like a bad joke. The American Civil Rights movement is based
on the struggle to secure the right to vote.
Yet, here is the most successful black candidate for president in
history, with 90% black support, arguing against counting all the votes for
purely partisan political reasons. What
this proves is that while the white voters have shown that they can overcome
their racial prejudices by supporting Obama, the
blacks have yet to demonstrate the same.
The black position in these primaries is like the Israelis. Any criticism of Obama
is called racism just as any criticism of Israel is called anti-Semetism. So the
blacks are repudiating the basis of their own liberation from Jim Crow America
by a margin of 90%. Good work. Then again, Barack Obama’s roots are in Africa, not in the domestic civil rights
movement, like so many black and white Americans.
Hillary Clinton’s record is really no better. As an attorney with the House Impeachment
Committee back in the 1970’s she helped remove Richard Nixon from office and
bring the current crop of cheats to power.
This is why the race is so close and voters just can’t choose between
these two equally partisan and unpalatable candidates. One thing is clear,
however, if the Democrats stand any hope of beating John McCain, Clinton and Obama will have to be on the ticket together.
McCain’s record on democracy is no better. After being personally maligned by Bush in
the 2000 South Carolina primary, he, the great patriot and prisoner of war,
could have been the one vote in the Senate needed to challenge the Florida
returns in the electoral college. Instead of standing up for people’s right to
vote with Gore, a fellow war veteran, he decided to let Gore’s 538,000 vote
margin go by the boards and let the vote count stop in Florida thus ensuring
the election of war shirker George Bush.
So, the country is faced with a choice between three
similar, equally partisan, unappealing candidates. That’s why it’s so close.
Coups
d’etat
Really,
there have been three coups d’etat in the United
States in the past half century. Kennedy’s assassination in 1963, the removal of Richard Nixon from
office in 1974, an attempted coup against Bill Clinton through impeachment in
1998, and the stolen election in 2000.
Voters are trying to determine which, if any, of the current candidates really
stands for the people’s right to self-government.
Barack Obama’s
extraordinary success coming from nowhere is the Republican strategy for
victory in 2008. Bush may be for phony
science in the climate debate, birth control and creationism; but the
Republicans are state of the art practitioners of psychological warfare. Bush I was director of the CIA. The CIA specializes in overthrowing
governments and rigging elections. Who
else but the son of a CIA director could become president after losing the
election? Now, to save the war in Iraq,
Bush is pulling out all the stops to elect John McCain. The best strategy…Barack Obama as the Democratic
nominee.
Obama’s coalition rests on
three legs: the anti-war movement (which includes the young and college
educated), the blacks voting as a monolithic bloc, and the Hillary hating
misogynists. Once Obama
faces McCain, many of the voters who supported him because they hate Hillary
and/or women will go to McCain. Will
they be replaced by former Hillary supporters? Largely, yes. But if the October surprise is a peace
offensive in mid-October, with Bush, Abbas, and Olmert on the White House lawn signing documents, shaking
hands and making smiles, like Kissinger’s Peace is at Hand speech before the
1972 election, McCain will claim that the war in Iraq was a success by making a
Middle East peace possible and clobber Obama on
Election Day.
That the agreement breaks down in a month and Bush orders
the bombing of Iran during his lame duck period is beside the point. The voters will have been manipulated and
screwed into another four years of catastrophe.
The
Corruption of the Commercial Media
The
media is also in on the game. It didn’t even cover the Nebraska presidential
primary, one of only two contests on May 13, 2008. How much more irresponsible
can it get? Why don’t the 229,469
primary voters in Nebraska count? Nebraska’s
primary took place after February 5th, complying with the rules. Because no delegates are selected as a result
and the results undermine the argument for treating caucus selected delegates
on a par with primary elected delegates. And John McCain is the presumptive
nominee.
After
Obama’s brilliant and excellent speech on race, the
logical question to ask him was, “After what you said in your speech, Senator Obama, what is your position on reparations?” Nothing. The fourth estate is sleeping at the switch,
and, because his opponents in the Democratic primaries cannot be seen as
bashing Obama and hurting his chances in November,
voters are left in the dark on his position on issues. That’s why he can’t close the deal. But the media supports Obama
because he has the biggest advertising budget and the executives are mostly
right wing Republicans.
Three
Senators
Clinton, McCain and Obama are
similar also in the fact that they are all senators. No president has been elected directly from
the Senate since Warren G. Harding in 1920.
About half the presidents in the past century have been governors. Senators Truman and Nixon became president
after serving as Vice-President.
Senators Kennedy and Johnson both served in the House of
Representatives. Neither Senator Clinton
nor Senator Obama has served in the House. Senator McCain has.
The
Voter Rebellion of 2008
Another reason the race is so close all around is that
the voters are resisting pressure from the media and the professional
politicians to hurry up and make this difficult decision. Super Tuesday was designed by the politicians
to get the nomination process over with as quickly as possible. In the absence of a clearly qualified front
runner, the voters are turning out in record numbers to take their time making
this tough decision. Why should voters
decide on the candidates in February, or even May or June, when the conventions
do not take place until the summer and the election isn’t until November?
Furthermore, severing the presidential primaries from the
other primaries is a disaster in governmental terms regardless of who wins the
White House. Historically, insurgent
challenges like the Obama – Clinton contest would
have resulted in a lot of new blood being brought into the congress in the
solidly Democratic districts where Republicans can’t win. The professional politicians and media have
reduced the presidency to a half a billion dollar popularity contest.
The
Genius and Subtlety of the Voters
The incredible thing about the May 13, 2008 primaries is
that West Virginia voted 109.32% of Kerry’s 2004 vote while Nebraska voted
36.86%. That left Clinton with a 3,319
vote margin nationwide. All Nebraska
would have had to do is match West Virginia’s turnout and Clinton’s 3,319
margin would have been a 1,920 margin for Obama.
|
Primaries |
Clinton |
Obama
|
Others |
Kerry Vote |
|
|
NH- Dem |
112,215 |
104,772 |
67,081 |
340,511 |
83.42% |
|
NH Rep |
1,743 |
1,800 |
1,080 |
||
|
Michigan |
328,309 |
238,168 |
27,931 |
2,479,166 |
23.98% |
|
SC |
141,128 |
295,091 |
96,008 |
661,699 |
80.43% |
|
Alabama |
226,504 |
302,814 |
10,703 |
693,933 |
77.82% |
|
Florida |
857,208 |
569,041 |
299,015 |
3,583,544 |
48.14% |
|
Ct. |
164,831 |
179,349 |
6,328 |
857,488 |
40.88% |
|
Arizona |
229,501 |
193,126 |
29,260 |
893,524 |
50.57% |
|
Arkansas |
217,313 |
80,774 |
8,117 |
469,953 |
65.16% |
|
California |
2,421,995 |
1,997,749 |
258,044 |
6,745,485 |
69.35% |
|
Delaware |
40,751 |
51,124 |
4,466 |
200,152 |
48.13% |
|
Georgia |
328,129 |
700,366 |
26,336 |
1,366,155 |
77.21% |
|
Illinois |
662,845 |
1,301,954 |
51,317 |
2,891,550 |
69.72% |
|
Mass. |
704,591 |
511,887 |
30,293 |
1,803,800 |
69.12% |
|
Missouri |
395,287 |
405,284 |
19,564 |
1,259,171 |
65.13% |
|
NJ |
602,576 |
492,186 |
25,006 |
1,911,430 |
58.58% |
|
NM |
73,105 |
71,396 |
4,239 |
370,942 |
40.10% |
|
NY |
1,003,623 |
697,914 |
47,296 |
4,314,280 |
40.54% |
|
Ok. |
228,425 |
130,087 |
54,682 |
503,966 |
81.99% |
|
Tenn. |
332,599 |
250,730 |
32,271 |
1,036,477 |
59.39% |
|
Utah |
48,719 |
70,373 |
5,147 |
241,199 |
51.51% |
|
La. |
136,959 |
220,588 |
26,801 |
820,299 |
46.85% |
|
Wa. |
315,222 |
353,563 |
21,481 |
1,510,201 |
45.71% |
|
DC |
27,326 |
85,534 |
589
|
202,970 |
55.89% |
|
Maryland |
285,440 |
464,474 |
8,869 |
1,334,493 |
56.86% |
|
Virginia |
347,579 |
623,479 |
8,492 |
1,454,742 |
67.33% |
|
Hawaii |
8,835 |
28,347 |
179
|
231,708 |
16.12% |
|
Wisconsin |
452,795 |
646,007 |
11,624 |
1,489,504 |
74.55% |
|
Ohio |
1,207,806 |
979,025 |
38,076 |
2,741,167 |
81.17% |
|
RI |
108,750 |
75,115 |
1,132 |
259,760 |
71.22% |
|
Texas |
1,478,434 |
1,382,703 |
49,855 |
2,832,704 |
102.76% |
|
Vermont |
59,640 |
91,740 |
2,962 |
184,067 |
83.85% |
|
Mississippi |
155,686 |
255,809 |
9,256 |
457,766 |
91.91% |
|
Pennsylvania |
1,259,466 |
1,046,120 |
- |
2,938,095 |
78.47% |
|
NC |
653,353 |
876,226 |
35,576 |
1,525,849 |
102.58% |
|
Indiana |
643,797 |
629,310 |
969,011 |
131.38% |
|
|
Nebraska |
43,614 |
46,279 |
3,864 |
254,328 |
36.86% |
|
W. Va. |
239,187 |
91,663 |
26,181 |
326,591 |
109.32% |
|
|
|||||
|
16,545,286 |
16,541,967 |
1,349,121 |
52,157,680 |
66.02% |
|
|
48.05% |
48.04% |
3.92% |
|||
|
Difference |
(3,319) |
34,436,374 |
|
Unofficial Results |
|
|
Number of Counties |
55 |
|
Counties Reported |
55 |
|
U.S. President |
|
|||||
|
Party |
Candidate |
Votes |
|
|||
|
REP |
Willard
Mitt Romney |
5195 |
|
|||
|
DEM |
Hillary
Rodham Clinton |
239187 |
|
|||
|
DEM |
Barack Hussein Obama |
91663 |
|
|||
|
REP |
John
Sidney McCain III |
89654 |
|
|||
|
REP |
Ronald
Ernest Paul |
6112 |
|
|||
|
DEM |
John
Reid Edwards |
26181 |
|
|||
|
REP |
Rudolph
William Giuliani |
2839 |
|
|||
|
REP |
Jerry
Ralph Curry |
728 |
|
|||
|
REP |
Michael
Dale Huckabee |
12184 |
|
|||
|
REP |
Alan
L. Keyes |
1424 |
|
|||
|
Total Votes (All Parties): |
475167 |
|
||||
|
Nebraska Presidential
Primary May 13, 2008 |
|
|||||
|
Party |
Race |
District |
Candidate |
votes |
Percentage |
|
|
Republican |
President |
|
John McCain |
118065 |
87% |
|
|
Republican |
President |
|
Ron Paul |
17647 |
13% |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Democrat |
President |
|
Hillary Clinton |
43614 |
47% |
|
|
Democrat |
President |
|
Mike Gravel |
3864 |
4% |
|
|
Democrat |
President |
|
Barack Obama |
46279 |
49% |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Nebraska |
President |
|
Don J. Grundmann |
37 |
47% |
|
|
Nebraska |
President |
|
Bryan Malatesta |
18 |
23% |
|
|
Nebraska |
President |
|
Diane Beall Templin |
24 |
30% |
|
|
|
||||||
|
Green |
President |
|
Jesse Johnson |
13 |
19% |
|
|
Green |
President |
|
Cynthia McKinney |
38 |
57% |
|
|
Green |
President |
|
Kent Mesplay |
8 |
12% |
|
|
Green |
President |
|
Kat Swift |
8 |
12% |
|