How Accurate Are Polls?

Exit polls during the Virginia Republican primary predicted that George W. Bush would defeat John McCain by 12%. In the final result, Bush won by a hair less than 9%.

So, if exit polls, which poll only people who actually voted, can be wrong by 3%, the other polls can be even worse.

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf

Note: The Institute of Election Analysis would like to thank Fox 5 news for the inspiration for this analysis of polling inaccuracy.