The Other Close States: Iowa, Wisconsin, New Mexico and Oregon

Florida is not the only state still too close to call. Florida has 25 electoral votes. Iowa has 7, Wisconsin - 11, New Mexico - 5, and Oregon - 8, for a grand total of 31 electoral votes.

As of this moment, November 16, 2000 at 4:00 p.m. E.D.T., Gore is winning Iowa 635,912 to 630,791, or by a margin of 5,121. Gore holds Wisconsin 1,240,266 to 1,234,167, or a margin of 6,009. Vice-President Gore has pulled back into the lead in New Mexico. A narrowly written 6 was read as a 1 on election night. In the official canvass, the mistake was caught. Those 500 votes put Gore back in the lead 286,389 to 286,015, or by 374. And Gore is carrying Oregon 711,747 to Bushes 707,787, a margin of 3,960.

These four states with 31 electoral votes are in Gore's column by a total margin of 15,464. This is about half the relative margin in John Kennedy's squeaker in 1960. This assumes that Gore carries Florida by some microscopic margin. So, even if Gore wins, he will run number 45 out of 54 in popular vote, and 49th out of 54 in electoral vote.

If Bush manages to hold on, his situation will be even worse, 47th out of 54 in popular vote and 53rd out of 54 in electoral vote.

The significant fact is that a shift of less than 8,000 voters from Gore to Bush properly distributed in Iowa, Wisconsin, Oregon and New Mexico would give the election to Bush regardless of the outcome in Florida.

The 2000 presidential election is the closest in 116 years, since 1884, when a shift of less than 600 votes in New York would have made James G. Blaine president of the United States instead of Grover Cleveland.

The United States did not get its money's worth out of this election.

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf