The 1998 Governors' Races

After President, the Governors are the most important elected officials in the United States system. Routinely, more votes are cast for Governor than for Senator. Of course, there are always exceptions. In Wisconsin, the hotly contested Senate race between incumbent Democrat Russ Feingold and Republican Mark Neumann received more votes than the re-election of Governor Thompson. The primacy of Governors makes sense because there are only 50 Governors while there are 100 Senators. Every state has two Senators but only one Governor.

In 1998, the vote for Governor fell to 57,891,035 from 60,093,428; a decline of 2,202,393. The Republican candidates received 29,555,880; a decline of 2,686,677 from four years before. The Democratic candidates got 25,215,684, a gain of 258,658 over 1994's vote total. And the independent candidates garnered 3,119,471; an increase of 226,043 from four years earlier.

In 1998, the Republicans won 23 Governorships, the Democrats won 11 and the independents won 2. In 1994, 24 Republicans, 11 Democrats and 1 independent had been elected. So, the Republicans lost 1 Governorship while only the Independents gained one over the Republican landslide year of 1994.

Although overall party alignment changed little from 1994 to 1998, more than ¼ of the statehouses turned over. Democrats gained 4 governorships from the Republicans in Alabama, California, Iowa and South Carolina. Republicans won 5 governorships from the Democrats in Arkansas, Colorado, Florida, Nebraska and Nevada. And Jesse "The Body" Ventura, an independent Reform Party candidate, took the Governor's seat from the Republicans in Minnesota. New Hampshire, one of the two states (Vermont is the other) that still has a 2 year Governor's term, was gained by the Democrats in 1996.

Like the turnout overall, the vote for Governor fell an absolute 3.6%. Voters tilted slightly toward the Democrats and independents at the expense of the Republicans. Over ¼ of the governorships changed party, although the Democrats gained only 2% of the vote, from 41.5% to 43.5%, and the independents gained ½%, from 4.8% to 5.3%. The Republicans fell to 51%, a bare majority. So, everyone could claim a victory. The Republicans won a majority while the Democrats and independents gained. But really, the low vote totals show that the voters are dissatisfied with them all.

The Republicans won 2 to 1 in the Governors races with a less than 8% margin over the Democrats. Most Governors races, however, were landslides for one party or the other. Fourteen Republicans won with more than 55% of the vote, normally considered a landslide. Six Democrats won with over 55% and even Angus King, the independent Governor of Maine, won with 58%. That means that 21 of the 36 Governors races were won by landslide margins, indicating that they were not really contested races. Only 1 Republican and no Democrats won with less than 50%.

Taking all races together, however, the Republicans and Democrats fought each other to a stand still. Only the independent victory in Minnesota on the highest turnout of the election managed to change the party alignment. The message is clear. The Republicans and Democrats together are losing support at each succeeding election. The 1998 Governor's races show that the voters are willing to consider independent alternatives to the Republicans and Democrats.

Return to Institute of Election Analysis Homepage

Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf