Israel’s Hamas Truce and Syria Negotiations are Prelude to Iran Attack

            Israel is busy making peace with Hamas and Syria to free itself to attack Iran, possibly in conjunction with the United States.

            George Sawma, Lebanon expert at the Institute of Election Analysis, says that Israel’s desire for peace with Lebanon is thwarted by Hezbollah.  “Without Iran,” Mr. Sawma says, “Hezbollah is finished.”   Israel’s invasion of Lebanon two years ago came to grief at the hands of Hezbollah.  Israeli military doctrine dictates payback, plus.

            According to Sawma, Israel’s desire of defeating Hezbollah in Lebanon is driving Israeli preparations for an attack on Iran. 

            This attack will probably take place after the November elections in the United States, during George Bush’s lame duck period.  The United States, given the current claims of an Iranian nuclear weapons program, if not directly participating in the attack, will certainly give Israel all possible assistance.

            The result of an attack on Iran will be a general war in the Middle East.  Iran’s logical response would be to provide weapons and fighters to the Shiaa in Iraq’s south, basically to try to annex the Iraqi Shiaa to Iran.  Meanwhile, Iran could resume arming Iraqi Kurds in the north, while granting autonomy to its own Kurds, thus creating the nucleus of a Kurdistan that would try to annex the Kurdish portion of Turkey.

            This would create a big headache for NATO, of which Turkey is a member. Turkey without Kurds might have a stronger Islamic identity policy.  It would also result in the dismemberment of Iraq, a policy favored by many in the Pentagon.

            If the attack takes place after the United States presidential election, especially if Barack Obama wins; this could be another major chapter in the ongoing constitutional crisis that started ten years ago with Bill Clinton’s impeachment, and then moved on into the stolen election of 2000 which brought Bush to power, and the declaration of a national state of emergency in the wake of the 9/11 attacks. 

            There is a distinct possibility that the military would resist expanding the war in the Middle East on the orders of a lame duck president; especially if the military itself and the president-elect were opposed to the move.

            This analysis omits any mention of Iran using the oil weapon or closing the Straits of Hormuz by attacking tankers, another likely scenario in place of, or in addition to the above.  Germany is currently calling for an additional 6,000 NATO troops for Afghanistan.  With war in Iran, the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq would be linked geographically into one big battlefield.  Jerome Frank, in his book Bush On the Couch, predicted that Bush would become more intransigent and belligerent in the face of failure. 

This is the IEA’s nightmare scenario for the 2008 presidential election: a newly elected president McCain or Obama, AND a war with Iran.  Boys, get those draft cards ready.

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf