Gaza War is Netanyahu's Re-election Strategy


          After the Mt. Meron disaster, where 44 people were killed and hundreds injured, Netanyahu was finally toast. His indictments combined with his responsibility for the Mt. Meron disaster were going to put an end to his premiership. The Israeli Ministry of Health had limited outdoor gatherings to 500 people, but Bibi gave the Hasidim the green light for 100,000 to go to Mt. Meron, a venue already declared as dangerous.

          Israel holds all the cards. It knows that to enrage the Palestinians, all it has to do is take more land in Jerusalem and create more obstacles to worshippers at the Al-Asqua Mosque during Ramadan, the same way the Soviets could squeeze the west in Berlin during the Cold War.

          Facing political annihilation over his criminal probe and incompetence over the Mt. Meron mess, the only way for Bibi to retain power was to launch a war in Gaza. During wartime, the Israelis come together, that means politics stops. and Yair Lapid has three weeks to form a new government. If he fails, there will be new elections. Netanyahu will keep the Gaza War going until the clock has run out on Lapid.

          Netanyahu is a dictator and Israel is not a democracy. Unlike other dictatorships where the election is rigged by stuffing ballot boxes, Netanyahu rules by building coalitions until it's time for him to deliver on the power sharing agreement, and then refuses to deliver on his side of the bargain, collapsing the government and forcing new elections. That is why there have been four Israeli elections in the past two years.

          Lapid has until June 2 to form a government. That's the day the Gaza War will end.

Return to Institute of Election Analysis Home Page

Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf