The Wisconsin Primary
Proves Election Day Should Be A National Holiday
The Wisconsin
election and presidential primary held on April 7, 2020, during the coronavirus pandemic stay-at-home quarantine was an ad hoc
experiment. Political Science is different from the other sciences like Physics
or Chemistry, where one person's theory or discovery can be checked by others
in a laboratory replicating the results. There is no way to re-run an election
using different voting rules to see which system works best.
The 2016
General Election saw the highest percentage (27%) of ballots cast absentee in
Wisconsin's history. Because of the coronavirus, this
year, more than 1¼ million people (38.4% of registered voters) requested
absentee ballots, overwhelming the clerical staff of election offices. Some
4,728 voters asked for absentee ballots but were never sent them by the clerks.
In the April 7 election, more than 1.1 million mail ballots were returned, more
than 72% of all ballots cast. By
comparison, in Wisconsin's 2016 presidential race, 425,000 fewer absentee
ballots were requested, although almost twice as many people cast ballots.
Usually,
voters in Wisconsin return over 95% of the absentee ballots they requested. Due
to the chaotic conditions that prevailed, uncertainty over the time and conduct
of the election, fear of contagion by going out to mail the ballot, less than
89% of the vote-by-mail ballots were returned in April.
Return Rates
for Absentee Ballots in Wisconsin
|
Year |
Ballots Sent |
Ballots Returned |
Percentage returned |
Percentage of vote |
|
2016 |
845,243 |
830,763 |
98.2% |
27.27% |
|
2018 |
595,914 |
565,591 |
94.9% |
21.10% |
|
2020 |
1,271,734 |
1,129,488 |
88.8% |
72.76% |
Governor Evers had tried to postpone the
election. The legislature refused to accommodate that request. The usual flurry
of court filings followed, to no avail. The election proceeded as scheduled
with the normal rules in place.
However, given
that people were under a stay-at-home order because of the coronavirus,
many of the poll workers, who are generally elderly and retired, would not work
on Election Day. The result was that Milwaukee, Wisconsin's biggest city had
only five polling locations compared to its usual 180. Although less than
425,000 people showed up to vote in person, there were two-hour waits in some
places.
So, when the
ballots were counted, what was the result? Wisconsin had the highest voter
turnout of any presidential primary election this year, beating New Hampshire,
the usual winner, 45.83% to 44.91%, by almost a full percentage point even with
thousands of disenfranchised voters.
New Hampshire
is the gold standard of presidential primaries. First in the nation, it
attracts outsized attention for its 1 million voters. It started in 1916 and
became first in the nation in 1920, a position it has held ever since. In 1948,
presidential candidates' names were added instead of just pledged delegates,
and it rocketed to national prominence when it launched Dwight Eisenhower's
successful quest in 1952. For the next 40 years, every president and half of
the major party losers won the New Hampshire primary. With so much at stake,
candidates lavish time, attention, and unprecedented sums of money on the
Granite State that regularly generates general election sized turnouts.
New Hampshire
v. Wisconsin Percentage Presidential Primary Voter Turnout
|
Year |
2000 |
2004* |
2008 |
2012* |
2016 |
2020** |
|
New Hampshire |
44.4% |
29.9% |
53.6% |
31.4% |
52.4 |
44.9% |
|
Wisconsin |
22.7% |
24.6% |
37.1% |
25.9% |
49.4% |
45.8% |
* In 2004, California had the highest at 31.0%, and in 2012,
it was North Carolina, John Edwards' home state, with 31.5%. These 0.1%
differences are not significant because the Voting Eligible Population is an
estimate. ** Percentage of registered voters.
The reason for
the high turnout is that voters had nothing else to do. They were stuck at
home, more than stuck, they were required to stay at home except for
necessities. Going to vote gave them a legitimate reason to get out of the
house, get some exercise, and relieve their boredom.
There is
nothing in a democracy more necessary than casting a ballot. That so many of
our fellow citizens in Wisconsin were courageous enough to risk contracting a
serious, possibly fatal illness to exercise their franchise deserves our
admiration and our thanks.
They risked their lives to send a message
that we should all take to heart. On Election Day in Wisconsin, when the voters
had almost nothing else to do but vote, the turnout was historically high. The coronavirus pandemic was a unique opportunity to conduct an
election without the distractions of daily life. Could any experimental result
be more precise?
For voter participation in elections to
increase, Election Day should be a holiday. Voters should be given as much free
time as possible to cast their ballots.
It Matters
When Elections are Held
In contrast to the
robust voter turnout in places like New Hampshire and Wisconsin, New Jersey's
voter turnout has been in free fall. New Jersey holds gubernatorial and
legislative elections in odd-numbered years, instead of in even-numbered ones
like 47 other states.
New Jersey
Legislature-Only Election Turnout
|
Year |
1947 |
1951 |
1955 |
1959 |
1963 |
1967 |
1971 |
1975* |
1979 |
1983 |
|
Turnout |
53% |
59% |
81% |
71% |
70% |
64% |
62% |
57% |
48% |
48% |
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Year |
1987 |
1991 |
1995 |
1999 |
2003 |
2007 |
2011 |
2015 |
2019 |
|
|
Turnout |
47% |
51% |
38% |
31% |
34% |
32% |
27% |
22% |
27% |
|
* 18-year-olds got the vote in 1972. Young people are less
likely to vote given their mobility and interest in other things.
The 27%
turnout in last year's Assembly-only election was a disgrace. The Governor's
and Legislature's sending vote-by-mail ballots to tens of thousands of voters
who did not request them managed to boost turnout only marginally from the
historically low 22% in 2015.
The turnout
for state legislative elections in New Jersey has been in a steady decline
since 1991. Voters were defrauded of their right to fill vacancies in the
legislature by a deceptive Explanatory Statement of a constitutional amendment
giving party committees the right to pick the elected officials instead. The
New Jersey legislature has since become a game of musical chairs. Officials
resign, their replacements are appointed by political party county committee
members in private, and then the new representative runs as an incumbent in a
gerrymandered district in November. No wonder only one in four voters are
bothering to cast ballots in what are effectively fixed contests.
Only 8% of
voters cast ballots in New Jersey's legislative primaries last year and a
meager 27% voted in the General Election. Perhaps New Jersey voters have ballot
fatigue from having to vote at least two or even three times every year. It's
almost like a part-time job.
In addition to making Election Day a
holiday, New Jersey should move its gubernatorial and legislative elections to
even-numbered years, like all the other 47 states except for two (Louisiana and
Virginia). After President of the United States, the race for governor attracts
the most voters, except in the states with odd-year contests.
Odd-numbered year governors' races versus
previous even-numbered year federal election:
|
State |
Governor's race |
Percent |
Prior federal
election |
Percent |
Difference |
|
New Jersey |
2,198,362 |
38.5% |
3,248,642 |
55.3% |
‒ 16.8% |
|
Virginia |
2,629,309 |
47.6% |
3,351,757 |
59.5% |
‒ 11.9% |
|
Louisiana |
1,152,864 |
39.8% |
1,472,044 |
50.2% |
‒ 10.4% |
Low turnout
elections yield weak governments with questionable legitimacy.
Moving New Jersey's
gubernatorial and legislative elections to even-numbered years will increase
turnout. The change will also save money, which was the excuse for abolishing
special elections to fill vacancies in the legislature in the first place.
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