Good News for Biden from Pennsylvania
Joe Biden was born and spent his early years in Scranton,
Pennsylvania. During his 36 years representing Delaware, he was known as
Pennsylvania's third senator. The voters in Pennsylvania seemed to have reciprocated
on Primary Day.
In 2016, Democratic turnout exceeded Republican turnout
by 92,006 votes. This year, Democratic turnout beat Republican turnout by
444,114, although turnout was down by about half a million votes.
In
2016, Trump got 902,539 votes, while this year, he got 1,043,720, an increase
of 141,181. However, the total Republican turnout fell from 1,594,421 to
1,132,656 for a drop of 461,765.
Four years ago,
Hillary Clinton received 935,107 votes, beating Trump by only 32,568 a sign of
trouble that was ignored at the time. This year, Biden's 1,250,016 beat Trump's
total by 206,296. While Trump beat his 2016 total by 141,181, Biden
beat Clinton's total by 314,909.
Democrats
turned out 1,686,427 four years ago and 1,576,770 this year, for a decline of
just 104,657. Democratic turnout was 38.5% versus 34.4% Republican turnout for
an overall turnout of 31.5%, about 1/3rd less than the turnout in
Wisconsin and New Hampshire. In other words, in a repeat of the 2016
presidential race, neither Trump nor Biden is generating much enthusiasm with
the voters, so the election will be close.
Given
that Sanders still got 283,973 votes in Pennsylvania this year, and Weld got
68,740, the only possible conclusion is that at this point, Biden is far, far
ahead in Pennsylvania. He already has a lead of between 300,000 and 400,000
votes among 1/3rd of the electorate.
However, that could all turn on a dime, depending on his
choice for vice-president.
|
Pennsylvania |
2016 |
2020 |
% of party vote |
2020-2016 |
|
Dem. Turnout |
1,681,427 |
1,576,770 |
-104,657 |
|
|
Republican Turnout |
1,594,421 |
1,132,656 |
-461,765 |
|
|
Trump |
902,539 |
1,043,720 |
92% |
141,181 |
|
Clinton '16/Biden '20 |
935,107 |
1,250,016 |
79% |
314,909 |