How Trump Lost

 

            Donald Trump's campaign is running around the country filing suits alleging election fraud and trying to stop the count and certification of the vote in swing states. An undercurrent of racism is in the claims as President Trump cites the heavily black cities of Milwaukee, Detroit, Philadelphia, and Atlanta as the site of the shenanigans. He presents no evidence except a few second-hand affidavits because any attempt to buttress his arguments with numbers would show their falsity.

 

Pennsylvania

2020

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Pennsylvania

6,917,613

9,089,901

76.1%

Registered +4.2%

Turnout +12.2%

Philadelphia County

Philadelphia

741,377

1,129,399

65.6%

Registered +2.4%

Turnout +3.3%

Allegheny County

Pittsburgh

722,033

942,360

76.6%

Registered +1.9%

Turnout +11.1%

Montgomery County

510,157

609,649

83.6%

Registered +5.6%

Turnout +17.3%

 

2016

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Pennsylvania

6,165,478

8,722,977

70.1%

 

Philadelphia County

717,631

1,102,560

65.1%

 

Allegheny County

650,114

924,631

70.3%

 

Montgomery County

434,687

577418

75.3%

 

 

            Clinton lost Pennsylvania to Trump by 49,941 votes in 2016. Biden beat Trump by 81,654. That's a swing of 131,595 from Clinton to Biden. Given that Philadelphia had only an extra 3.3% (23,746 voters), compared to a statewide voter increase of 12.2% (752,135 voters), it is hard to make a case for massive voting fraud by double-counting ballots in the City of Brotherly Love. Since  Biden's margin over Trump in Philadelphia was 4,227 votes smaller than Hillary's, it's clear that the former Vice-President's victory did not come from Philadelphia. That 4,227 vote deficit even had to be made up elsewhere in Pennsylvania for Biden to win.

            So, if Biden was running behind Hillary in Philly, how did he carry Pennsylvania? In the suburbs. Clinton carried Montgomery County in 2016 by 93,351. Biden carried it by 134,051. Philadelphia County is 45% white with a median household income of $30,000. Montgomery County is 86% white with double Philadelphia's median household income ‒ $60,000. Of the 131,595  vote swing to Biden in Pennsylvania, 40,700 or 31% came from Montgomery County, not from repeated scanning of the same ballots in Philadelphia.

 

Michigan

            Was Pennsylvania an anomaly? The same allegations of massive fraud, running ballots through counting machines several times, and denial of adequate access to poll watchers to monitor the count (they were required to remain 6 ft. away) were made in Michigan, with special emphasis on Detroit.

Michigan

2020

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Michigan

5,539,302

8,061,525

68.7%

Registered +7.3%%

Turnout +13.6%

Wayne County

(Detroit)

878,102

1,398,888

62.7%

Registered +3.1%

Turnout +9.4%

 

2016

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Michigan

4,874,619

7,514,055

64.8%

 

Wayne County

(Detroit)

802,195

1,355,794

59.1%

 

 

            In Michigan, Biden beat Trump by 154,188 compared to Clinton's loss by 10,701. That's a swing of 164,890. Wayne County chipped in 42,166 of Biden's gain, which is about 50% more than would be expected based solely on the number of registered voters, but reasonable given the preponderance of black support for Biden. The increase in registered voters and turnout for Wayne County is still significantly lower than the rest of Michigan. That Wayne County's turnout was 6% lower than the state as a whole is not an indication of massive electoral fraud, counting the same ballot multiple times, or inserting "backdated" ballots into the mix.

            Clinton carried Wayne County with 65.8% of the vote. Biden got 72.1%. Even assuming that every Biden vote over Clinton's 65.8% was fraudulent, that would come to 12,537 votes, not enough to explain Biden's 155,188 vote win. Wayne County is 52% white with a median household income of $39,000.

 

Wisconsin

2020

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Wisconsin

3,298,041

3,684,762

89.5%

Registered +3.5%

Turnout +9.7%

Milwaukee County

459,723

557,089

82.5%

Registered -0.8%

Turnout +4.2%

 

2016

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Wisconsin

3,004,041

3,558,877

84.4%

 

Milwaukee  County

441,053

561,965

78.5%

 

 

            Like Pennsylvania and Michigan, the big, heavily black urban area in Wisconsin saw smaller increases in registered voters and turned in fewer ballots cast, proportionately, than the rest of its state. These numbers are not an argument for fraud in these heavily Democratic counties.

            In 2016, Trump carried Wisconsin by 23,758. Biden won it with 20,608 for a swing of 44,366. Clinton carried Milwaukee County by 162,753 compared to Biden's 183,045. Just to demonstrate how precise and subtle voters can be, if Biden had lost the 20,310 votes by which he beat Hillary's total four years earlier, Biden still would have won Wisconsin by 308 votes, proving that Biden's victory did not come from Milwaukee. Turnout in Wisconsin increased by 9.7%, but by only 4.2% in Milwaukee. Again, proof of voting irregularities in Wisconsin's biggest, blackest city is lacking.

 

 

Georgia

2020

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Georgia

5,000,551

7,233,584

69.1%

Registered +15.4%

Turnout +20.0%

Fulton County

524,659

808,742

64.9%

Registered +6.3%

Turnout +20.7%

Dekalb County

370,804

547,802

67.7%

Registered +3.7%

Turnout +16.3%

 

2016

Location

Votes Cast

Registered

Turnout

 

Georgia

4,165,405

6,266,123

66.4%

 

Fulton County

434,370

761,118

61.0%

 

DeKalb County

318,748

528,120

60.4%

 

 

            Georgia added a million new voters since 2016. Automatic voter registration, combined with the fact that Georgia's population is growing by about 100,000 people per year, helps explain the 20% surge in turnout. In September 2016, Georgia instituted automatic voter registration when people got driver's licenses. Also, Stacey Abrams' campaign for Governor in 2018 registered thousands of previously unregistered people. Abrams lost her bid for Governor in 2018 by only 54,723 votes. Of the million new voters since 2016, two-thirds were people of color, and 22% were under age 35. Political scientists have noted for years that the changing demographics in Georgia would make it a competitive state.

            Atlanta is composed of Fulton and part of DeKalb Counties. As in Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, the registration and voting patterns of the heavily minority metropolitan areas mostly trailed the rest of their states. Fulton County is the only one where the increase in turnout exceeded the statewide average ‒ by 0.7%, nearly the same.

            Hillary lost Georgia by 211,141, and Biden squeaked to victory by 12,670. That's a swing of 223,811 votes. Fulton and DeKalb Counties added 142,355 to the total vote between 2016 and 2020, a good chunk of the million extra, but less than their proper proportion.  Fulton and DeKalb are 18.7% of the registered voters in Georgia but have produced only 14.7% of the vote increase since 2016.  Biden carried Fulton and DeKalb Counties by 114,558 more votes than Hillary received, just over half of what Biden needed to capture Georgia. Again, not an argument for double counting or any fraudulent activity in Fulton and DeKalb. Non-Hispanic whites are a bare majority of Georgia residents.

            Like Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin, it is in the suburbs, like Montgomery County, Pennsylvania, that the reasons for Trump's loss should be sought.

 

Arizona

            Arizona voted for a Democratic candidate for president for only the second time in the 72 years since 1948. A medium-sized state, it is solidly Republican, having punched way above its weight by having produced two presidential nominees in the past fifteen elections. Arizona has about 2% of the United States's population but produced 14% of the Republican candidates for president in the past 60 years. Arizona was the last of the 48 continental states to be admitted to the Union, in 1912, 108 years ago.

            At the legislative hearing staged by Republicans to cast doubt on Biden's win, one person alleged that there were 200,000 - 300,000 phantom voters. Inflated voting rolls are unlikely given that Arizona's turnout of voting age population was lower than 30 other states.

            Two more likely causes of Republican Trump's almost unprecedented defeat in Arizona is the reverse coattails of Astronaut Senator-elect Mark Kelly, the husband of Representative Gabriel Giffords, who was shot by a would-be assassin in 2011 at a constituent event, and Cindy McCain, the wife of 2008 Republican presidential candidate and Vietnam War P.O.W. John McCain's endorsement of Joe Biden for president. President Trump had impugned the bravery and heroism of McCain's wartime service and ordeal by saying on C-SPAN a month after his presidential announcement, "He's a war hero because he was captured. I like people that weren't captured." Such a comment coming from someone whose bone spurs in his feet prevented him from wartime military service might easily explain his narrow loss in Arizona.

 

Collateral Confirmation of Trump's Defeat

            Presidential elections are not just about electing a president; they are also about electing a government. In presidential years, all 435 members of the House of Representatives and one-third of the Senate are also elected.

            This election, even more than the 2016 election, was not about a choice between two unpopular candidates but about the voters trying to figure out some way to get the two parties to stop bickering. With the emergence of the coronavirus pandemic health crisis and the concomitant multi-trillion dollar deficits, a properly functioning government working together is urgent and necessary for the nation's physical and economic health.

            When the country is closely divided, a divided government is to be expected. Historically, the president's party gains House seats in a presidential year. It's called coattails. The president's party gained seats in every presidential election[1] from 1920 to 1952.  In 1956 the Republicans lost seats on the heels of Eisenhower's re-election, and the Democrats lost seats when Kennedy won. Then the old pattern of presidential party gains reappeared from Lyndon Johnson's 1964 landslide until Ronald Reagan's re-election in 1984. In the nine elections since 1988, however, the presidential victor's party has lost House seats in six of the nine elections, whereas it lost seats only twice in the previous twenty-one elections.

            Because the real source of the bickering in Congress is structural, gerrymandered districts where the only threat to most legislators' re-election now comes from primary challenges from the fringes of their party, voters are now forced to compensate in every election in order to keep the extremists on both sides in check. 

            After winning an extra 41 seats in the off-year election of 2018 as a check on President Trump, the voters now took back 13 to weakened the Democrats in the House to punish them for the impeachment. On the basis of recent history showing the party of the winning presidential candidate more likely to lose seats in the House, the Democrats would have been expected to maintain or increase their hold if Trump was the intended victor. 

            The voters also weakened the Republicans in the Senate. These results demonstrate voter dissatisfaction with both parties in Congress. They are trying to make the two legislative branches as evenly balanced as possible because that increases the power of each individual legislator. If the defection of a few representatives on either side can deprive the leadership of its majority, then the consensus of both parties will be necessary to get anything done.

            The two Georgia Senate run-off elections fortuitously gave the voters the opportunity to know who won the White House before deciding who controls the Senate. With Biden's victory, the two Senate seats should at least split, leaving the Republicans barely in control.

 

Trump's Missing Concession

            Trump is refusing to concede for two reasons. He is trying to reverse the outcome of the election and to avoid personal humiliation.

            Trump rose to fame on the Apprentice television show. Contestants vied for positions, where the ultimate put down was "you're fired." Trump's fragile ego couldn't handle a headline of a "You're Fired" above his picture in the newspaper the day after if he lost. By not conceding his defeat, the debate is over whether he lost, not why.

            Trump is also trying to replicate George W. Bush's 2000 playbook of stopping the vote count and certification of the election and being declared the victor in the courts.

            Trump's refusal to concede has been both beneficial and detrimental. On the plus side, he is teaching Americans how the electoral system works. A generation of people is learning about county clerks, secretaries of state, boards of elections, certifications, challenges, electors, and myriad other details of conducting elections that usually get no attention.

            On the negative side, the time between Election Day and Inauguration Day is usually spent trying to understand the election so the people can plan for the future.

 

Trump's Tragedy

            The tragedy of Donald Trump's administration is that he never understood the job. He could have been a good president if he had understood it. During the 2016 campaign, he ran as a builder. Even people who disagreed with his race-baiting and boorish behavior expected him to pave the roads, build bridges, and repair the infrastructure.

            Instead, he tried to build a wall while tearing down the institutions of government, unilaterally pulling out of deals that had been approved by Congress, and staffing the federal agencies with people who opposed the functions of the departments which they were charged with overseeing.

            The United States is a great country, and being president is a high honor. Everything that the government had done before Trump's election was not a mistake. Trump's contempt for democratic norms during his administration, and especially in the aftermath of his loss, is an insult to the integrity and wisdom of the American people.

 

The Real Problem - An Ossified Gerontocracy Presiding Over A Collapsing Empire

          The real problem is not Donald Trump, who did some good in shaking up the establishment in Washington, the  Republican Party, and the media.

            The problem is that Donald Trump is 75 years old and is being succeeded by a president who is 78. Nancy Pelosi, the Speaker of the House, is 80 (although I think she will be deposed by the new Congress). And Mitch McConnell, the Senate Majority leader, is 78.

            It reminds me of the Soviet Union in the early 1980s with Brezhnev, Chernenko, and Andropov, elderly, ailing gentlemen. Gerontocracies are a sign of a political system impervious to change. Those in power remain in power, and the government serves their interests. Unable to change and adapt to changed circumstances, the only option is collapse, which happened to the Soviet Union.

            A political system that costs $1 billion to be elected president and millions upon millions to win lesser offices is not a democracy. The only people who can get elected to public office today are millionaires of independent means who can buy party nominations and lawyers who can protect their own interests in a corrupt political process.

            No wonder the government is running a fiscal deficit of 15.2% of GDP, the highest since the end of World War II. The record of the past four years is one that neither the Republicans nor the Democrats can be proud of. That's why, given what they had to work with, the voters turned out in droves to make both parties lose.

 

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Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf

 

 



[1] Only elections where women had the vote are included.