Why Netanyahu will Lose and the Democrat will Win the Presidency in 2016


During last year’s mid-term elections, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu rebutted United States criticism of Israeli settlements on the West Bank and in Jerusalem by characterizing the criticism as “against American values.”


This was a direct slap at Obama couched in really offensive terms by playing to the right- wing Republican mantra that Obama really isn’t an American. In addition, this was his way of saying, “thank you” For the almost $250 million in arms that the United States gave Israel during its attack on Gaza over the summer. Talk about chutzpah. The idea that an Israeli Prime Minister will accuse the United States government’s official position as being against American values is so outrageous as to be almost laughable.  Netanyahu deliberately tried to influence the outcome of the mid-term elections and, with the Republican victory, thinks he succeeded.


Now, Netanyahu has agreed to accept the invitation of the Republican leadership of the House and Senate to address a joint session of Congress.  President Obama was informed neither of the invitation nor was he given prior notice by the Israelis of Netanyahu’s decision to attend.  The Republicans Congress, in concert with Israel, is running an independent foreign policy, trying to derail the negotiations over Iran’s nuclear program. And this from the people like House Speaker John Boehner and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell who have constantly complained about Obama exceeding his Constitutional authority. 


Netanyahu has sold himself to the Israelis as someone who understands American politics.  If this is so, his understanding has led to unprecedented hostility between the two governments.  The only time it was this bad was almost sixty years ago in the wake of the 1956 Suez War, when Israel attacked Egypt in collusion with France and Great Britain. No Israeli government, until now, has overtly aligned itself politically with any faction in the United States.


Netanyahu thinks he understands American politics because he went to high school in Pennsylvania, and attended MIT and Harvard.  He also worked in Boston in the late 1970’s.  He doesn’t.  


Netanyahu’s speech to Congress means that none of the prospective Republican candidates for president in 2016 from the House or Senate have a chance to win the nomination. They will fail on the issue of whether the president or the congress runs foreign policy.  The Republican candidate will be a Governor.


Furthermore, Netanyahu’s collusion with the Republican leadership will guarantee a Democratic presidential victory in 2016.  He is saddling the Republican Party with a pro-Iran war platform from which the candidate will not be able to dismount.  The American people are not going to vote for another war of choice, especially Israel’s choice, in 2016.  That is why Bush could well be the Republican nominee, to give the American people another chance to repair the damage from the stolen 2000 election.


With friends like Bibi, not enemies are needed.  But then again, this is a self-inflicted wound by the Republicans who, at heart, are the reification of Nixon’s southern strategy.  The Republicans sheer hatred of Obama and adoration of Israel is because they are racists.


Finally, this little stratagem of Netanyahu’s of getting the United States to fight Israel’s war against Iran will backfire with the Israeli electorate.  Netanyahu made it clear when he stole his election from Tsivi Lippi that he was not going to make peace with the Palestinians.  His program was to “improve their lives”, kind of like what the white South Africans did for the blacks during Apartheid.  Whenever anyone objected to the political subjugation of the blacks, the South Africans retorted that Black South Africans lived better than any other blacks in Africa.


So, the Israelis have a clear choice in the March elections; continued warfare and alienation from Israel’s best and strongest friend, or to join the law abiding nations of the world by making peace with the Palestinians and abandoning its racist based domestic policies masquerading as security. The Israelis know which side of the matzoh their butter is on.


Return to Institute of Election Analysis Home Page

Contact: Joshua Leinsdorf